| 引用本文: | 朱玲玲,张竟竟,李治国,等.基于SPI的河南省冬小麦生育期干旱时空变化特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(5):51-58. |
| ZHU Lingling,ZHANG Jingjing,LI Zhiguo,et al.基于SPI的河南省冬小麦生育期干旱时空变化特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(5):51-58. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探索以SPI监测冬小麦生育期内干旱时空变化、发展趋势和对粮食产量的影响。【方法】基于1961?2015 年河南省17个站点的逐月气象资料，利用标准化降水指数（SPI）定量分析了河南省冬小麦生育期干旱时空演变特征及干旱对冬小麦产量的影响。【结果】生育前期干旱发生频率在24.1%~37.0%之间变化，固始和驻马店最低，三门峡和新乡最高；分蘖期干旱发生频率在18.5%~31.5%之间，开封最低而卢氏最高；返青—抽穗—成熟期干旱发生频率在27.8%~38.9%之间，商丘、西华和信阳最低而宝丰最高；全育期干旱发生频率在24.1%~38.9%之间，固始最低、孟津最高。未来河南省冬小麦生育前期、返青—抽穗—成熟期以干旱为主；分蘖期、全育期以湿润化为主。河南省返青—抽穗—成熟期和全育期干旱对冬小麦气候产量的影响较大。【结论】生育前期和返青—抽穗—成熟期未来呈干旱化趋势，应采用针对性措施及时灌溉，有效应对干旱和保障小麦生产。 |
| 关键词: 干旱； 标准化降水指数（SPI）； 冬小麦 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0041 |
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| Analysing Spatiotemporal Variation of the Occurrence of Drought within the Growth Season of Winter Wheat in Henan Province Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index |
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ZHU Lingling, ZHANG Jingjing, LI Zhiguo, ZHANG Yanwei, LIANG Chunling
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Department of Surveying and Planning, Shangqiu Normal University, Shangqiu 476000, China;.Economic and Management School, Zhongyuan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450000, China; Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 This paper is aimed to analyse the spatiotemporal variation of the occurrence of drought as well as its pattern and impact on yield of winter wheat in Henan Province.【Method】 We first calculated the standardized precipitation index (SPI) using monthly meteorological data measured at 17 weather stations from 1961 to 2015; we then used it to analyse the spatiotemporal variation of the droughts occurring within the growth season of the wheat and their consequent effects upon grain yield across the province. 【Result】The frequency of the drought occurrence in early growth stage of the wheat varied between 24.1%~37.0% across the province, with the minimum occurring in Gushi and Zhumadian and the maximum seen in Sanmenxia and Xinxiang. The frequency of the drought occurring at tillering stage varied between 18.5%~31.5%, with the minimum seen in Kaifeng and the maximum in Lushi. The frequency of the drought occurring at greening-earing-maturity stage varied between 27.8%~38.9%, with the minimum occurring in Shangqiu, Xihua and Xinyang, and the maximum in Baofeng. The frequency of the drought during the whole growth season varied between 24.1%~38.9%, with the minimum being in Gushi and the maximum in Mengjin. The analysis revealed that the early stage and the green-heading-maturity stage of the wheat will be drought dominant, while the tillering stage will be relatively wet; droughts occurring at greening-earing-maturity stage had a significant impact on the yield. 【Conclusion】The early growth stage and greening-earing-maturity stage are predicted to be more water-stress for wheat growth, and appropriate actions should be taken to tackle the drought to safeguard wheat production. |
| Key words: drought; standard precipitation index (SPI); winter wheat |
