| 摘要: |
| 【目的】通过遥感快速准确的获取土壤湿度数据，可以为农业旱情的监测提供科学依据。【方法】选择山西省作为研究区，以2009～2018年的夏季的MODIS的地表温度和植被指数数据，通过TVDI模型获取农业旱情数据，并通过趋势分析、稳定性分析、Hurst指数等方法研究山西省农业干旱的时空变化特征。【结果】1.10年来山西省夏季农业旱情总体属于正常偏干旱，且干旱主要集中在晋南地区。2.10年来趋势变化表明，山西中部地区部分地区正在变得更加湿润，而晋南地区则变得更加的干旱。此外TVDI值与高程和坡度呈负相关，说明在高程越低，坡度越小的地区越干旱。3.山西省在2009～2018年夏季时节的TVDI值变化是趋于中度稳定。H指数表明，山西省晋中部分地区会继续变得显著湿润，而晋南地区继续变得轻微干旱。【结论】未来山西省夏季农业旱情除晋南会呈现出一种稳定轻微干旱外，大部分地区任然处于一种稳定湿润的状态。 |
| 关键词: 山西省；农业干旱；TVDI；趋势分析；稳定性分析；Hurst指数 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S127；TP79 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目( 41271507) ; 山西省自然科学基金项目(201801D221043) |
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| Characteristics of Drought Spatio-temporal Transformation in Shanxi Province |
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liuliwen
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College of Resources and Environment, Shanxi Agricultural University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Remote sensing as a tool can obtain soil moisture data quickly and accurately, and then provide scientific basis for agricultural drought monitoring.【Method】 Based on the data of surface temperature and vegetation index of modis in the summer of 2009 to 2018, the data of agricultural drought condition is obtained through the TVDI model, and the spatial and temporal variation of agricultural drought in Shanxi province is studied by means of trend analysis, stability analysis, hurst index and so on. 【Result】In the past 10 years, the drought condition of Shanxi Province in the summer is generally normal, and the drought is mainly concentrated in the southernern area. And the change of the trend shows that the central part of Shanxi are becoming more humid, while the southern area becomes more arid. In addition, the value of TVDI is negatively correlated with the elevation and the slope.The stability analysis shows that the change of the TVDI value tends to be moderately stable, meanwhile the H-index indicates that the center of Shanxi's region will continue to become significantly wet, while the southern area continues to become slightly dry.【Conclusion】In the future, most areas will still be in a stable and humid state of agricultural drought in summer in Shanxi Province. |
| Key words: Shanxi province; Agricultural drought; TVDI; Trend analysis; Stability analysis;Hurst index |
