| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究艾比湖绿洲参考作物蒸散量对不同气象因子的敏感性。【方法】利用Penman-Monteith公式，基于艾比湖绿洲1962—2016年4个气象站的逐月气象资料计算ET0。通过敏感性分析，计算最高温度、最低温度、相对湿度、日照时间和风速的敏感系数，并运用MK趋势检验分析其变化趋势，最后分析了敏感系数在各个站点的变化特征。【结果】通过MK趋势检验，发现参考作物蒸散量、日照时间和风速呈下降趋势；最高温度、最低温度和相对湿度呈上升趋势。通过敏感性分析，发现最高温度、风速在研究区呈下降趋势，最低温度、相对湿度、日照时间为上升趋势。艾比湖绿洲中，各气象因子对ET0的敏感程度为相对湿度＞最高温度＞风速＞最低温度＞日照时间。ET0对不同气象因子的敏感系数在空间上存在差异，最高温度、最低温度、风速、相对湿度在艾比湖北部的阿拉山口较高，在温泉站较低；日照时间则在温泉较高，在阿拉山口较低。【结论】相对湿度对艾比湖绿洲ET0的敏感性最高，日照时间的敏感性最低。 |
| 关键词: 艾比湖绿洲； 参考作物蒸散； Penman-Monteith公式； 敏感性分析 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.20180507 |
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| Sensitivity Analysis of the Reference Evapotranspiration in Ebinur Lake Oasis |
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WANG Yuan， DONG Yu， JIAO Li
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Institute of Geographic Science and Tourism，XinjiangNormal University，Urumqi 830054，China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 The evapotranspiration of crop depends on many factors and this paper analyzed its sensitivity to various meteorological factors in Ebinur lake oasis. 【Method】 Monthly ET0 in Ebinur lake oasis was calculated using the Penman-Monteith formula based on meteorological data measured from 1962 to 2016 at four meteorological stations in the region. The sensitivity of ET0 to the highest and lowest temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration and wind speed was calculated using sensitivity analysis; and the possible existence of any trends in the ET0 was analyzed using the MK trend test. We also calculated the variation of the sensitivity coefficient for each site. 【Result】 The MK trend test revealed that the evapotranspiration, sunshine duration and wind speed in the region have been in decline, while the highest and lowest temperature and the relative humidity have been in rise. Analysis found that the ET0 was sensitive to meteorological factor in an order of relative humidity >the highest temperature > wind speed > the lowest temperature > sunshine duration. The sensitivity coefficient of ET0 to different meteorological factors varies spatially, with the coefficients for the highest and lowest temperature, wind speed and relative humidity being high at Alashan pass-way in northern Ebinur lake, and low at Wenquan station. Wenquan station had longer sunshine duration than Alashan pass-way. 【Conclusion】 ET0 is most sensitive to relative humidity in Ebinur lake oasis, and least sensitive to sunshine duration. |
| Key words: ebinur lake oasis; reference crop evapotranspiration; Penman Monteith formula; sensitivity analysis |
