| 引用本文: | 韩会明,刘喆玥,刘成林,等.1960―2018年吉安地区干旱特征分析与短期预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2019,38(11):85-92. |
| ,et al.1960―2018年吉安地区干旱特征分析与短期预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2019,38(11):85-92. |
|
| 摘要: |
| 【目的】深入探索吉安地区干旱的时空分布特征、演变趋势以及未来干旱状况。【方法】基于吉安地区13个区县气象站点1960―2018年降水量的不同时间尺度SPI值，利用反距离权重法对干旱频率进行空间插值，分析了年、四季干旱的空间分布特征；采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、干旱站次比和游程理论分析了干旱变化趋势、发生时序特征、影响范围和严重程度；通过加权Markov模型对降水量状态进行了预测。【结果】吉安地区年尺度干旱的频率和高频范围从轻旱到特旱逐渐减小；秋旱和冬旱较为严重，发生频率均在30%左右，夏旱地区分布差异大；多地春旱有加重倾向，夏旱呈减弱趋势；全流域干旱事件容易集中在短时间内发生，干旱范围以20 a为周期缩小明显，严重程度也有所减弱；最后，预测2019年和2020年偏枯的区县为6个和8个。【结论】吉安地区应重点做好秋冬季节的防旱工作，并且关注可能发生在21世纪20年代初期的大范围干旱事件。 |
| 关键词: 干旱； 吉安地区； 标准化降水指数； 分布特征； Markov |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2019055 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Short-term Prediction in Ji’an Area during 1960―2018 |
|
HAN Huiming, LIU Zheyue, LIU Chenglin, CHEN Qiqiang, XIE Guodong
|
|
1.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;2. Jiangxi Meteorological Information Center, Nanchang 330096, China
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to further explore the drought condition of Ji’an area in terms of spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, evolution tendency and future situation of drought.【Method】The result of this paper was concluded based on the different time scale SPI values of precipitation during 1960―2018 among the 13 districts and counties of Ji’an city. The inverse distance weight method was adopted to interpolate the drought frequency. And the spatial distribution characteristics of annual and seasonal drought were analyzed in the research. Moreover, the trends, occurrence timing characteristics, impact range and severity of drought were analyzed by Linear regression method, Mann-Kendall trend test, drought station sub-ratio and run of theory; Precipitation status was also predicted by weighted Markov Model.【Result】The frequency and range of drought in Ji’an area decreased on the annual scale in terms of the light drought and extreme drought conditions. Droughts in Autumn and winter were more severe because the occurrence frequency was about 30%. However, drought in summer varied greatly on regional distribution. Overall, the spring drought had a tendency to increase in many places; while the summer drought was weakening. The whole basin drought events tended to occur intensively in a short period of time, and the drought area has been reduced obviously in a 20-year cycle, the severity of drought also have been reduced. In conclusion, it is predicted that six to eight regions will be in the low level water condition in 2019 and 2020.【Conclusion】Ji’an area should focus on drought prevention work in the autumn and winter seasons, and pay attention to the large-scale drought events that may occur in the early 2020s. |
| Key words: drought; Ji’an area; standardized precipitation index; distribution characteristics; Markov |
