| 引用本文: | 费鑫鑫,李京东,李 磊,等.滇池流域水资源承载力评价与驱动力研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2019,38(11):109-116. |
| ,et al.滇池流域水资源承载力评价与驱动力研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2019,38(11):109-116. |
|
| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探求滇池流域水资源承载力与流域社会经济发展、环境的协调关系。【方法】选取水资源、社会经济、环境相关指标，构建滇池流域水资源承载力综合评价模型，计算分析流域2011—2015年的压力指数、承载力指数、协调指数、水资源承载力指数的变化趋势，并用因子分析法进一步对流域水资源承载力进行评价，利用提取出的主要因子构建水资源承载力驱动力模型，识别出影响滇池流域水资源承载力的主要驱动力。【结果】滇池流域2011—2015年水资源承载力指数呈上升趋势；滇池流域水资源承载力的主要驱动力有人类活动因素和自然因素，包括城镇化率、经济发展因素以及年均气温和年降水量。人均GDP和年降水量属于正向驱动因子，城镇化率和年均气温是负向驱动力。【结论】基于社会经济可持续发展与水资源系统协调发展，应加大外流域向滇池流域调水工程的建设，形成多水源联合调水的格局，同时在保证大力发展经济的基础上控制人口数量，建立健全流域水资源系统多水源供水的水资源高效配置与统一调度方案。 |
| 关键词: 水资源承载力； 协调度； 综合评价模型； 滇池流域； 驱动力 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.20190247 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Evaluation and Driving Force of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Dianchi Basin |
|
FEI Xinxin, LI Jingdong, LI Lei, WEN Qing, ZHANG Liudong
|
|
1. College of Water Conservancy, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China;2. Yunnan Water and Hydropower Engineering Investigation, Design and Research Institute, Kunming 650201, China
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 The purpose of this paper to explore the coordination relationship between the water resources carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin and the socio-economic development and environment of the basin.【Method】Select the water resources, social economy and environment-related indicators to construct a comprehensive evaluation model for the water resources carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin. The trend of pressure index, bearing capacity index, coordination index and water resources carrying capacity index of the basin from 2011 to 2015 was calculated and analyzed. The factor analysis method was used to further evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the basin, and the main factors extracted were used. The driving force model of water resources carrying capacity was constructed to identify the main driving forces that affect the water resources carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin.【Result】The water resources carrying capacity index of Dianchi Lake Basin showed an upward trend from 2011 to 2015; The main driving forces of water resources carrying capacity in Dianchi Basin were human activity factors and natural factors, including urbanization rate, economic development factors and annual average temperature and annual. Precipitation. GDP per capita and annual precipitation wrer positive drivers, and urbanization rates and annual average temperatures are negative drivers. 【Conclusion】Based on the sustainable development of social economy and the coordinated development of water resources system, the construction of water transfer project from the outer basin to Dianchi Lake Basin should be increased to form a multi-water source combined water transfer pattern, and the population quantity should be controlled on the basis of ensuring vigorous economic development. Establish a sound water resource efficient allocation and unified scheduling scheme for multi-source water supply in the basin water resources system. |
| Key words: water resources carrying capacity; coordination degree; comprehensive evaluation model; Dianchi basin; driving force |
