| 引用本文: | 金菊良,许继荣,陈梦璐,等.五元联系数的效应全偏联系及其在水问题趋势分析中的应用[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| JIN Juliang,XU Jirong,CHEN Menglu,et al.五元联系数的效应全偏联系及其在水问题趋势分析中的应用[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 五元联系数的效应全偏联系及其在水问题趋势分析中的应用 |
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金菊良, 许继荣, 陈梦璐, 张浩宇, 宁少尉, 陈鹏飞
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合肥工业大学 土木与水利工程学院
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| 摘要: |
| 为了在现有三元效应全偏联系数研究的基础上,进一步延伸对五元效应全偏联系数的定义、表达公式、物理内涵的刻画以及应用实例深入研究,采用类比分析的方法,通过研究三元效应全偏联系数的偏正联系数、偏负联系数性质及其表达形式和物理意义,提出了五元联系数的效应全偏联系数计算公式,同时借助偏联系数的趋势曲线的面积进一步解释效应全偏联系数,扩展了效应全偏联系数的使用范围,并将其运用于实际的水问题分析中,结果表明：五元效应全偏联系数与五元四阶全偏联系数对于四川省水资源承载力动态分析评价具有高度的一致性,并且五元效应全偏联系数可以更明显的体现出评价对象的发展趋势,计算过程更加简便、评价结果更加合理、更加符合偏联系数的物理意义；五元效应全偏联系数对农业旱灾脆弱性指标的诊断与实际情况相符,诊断出四种指标随着年份变化有较大的波动,且四种指标对于旱灾脆弱性综合评价结果有较大影响。通过五元效应全偏联系数在不同实例中的应用,得出了较为合理可信的计算结果,效应全偏联系数作为联系数的一阶偏联系数,可更加直观地体现样本之间的差异,更深刻地揭示集对事件的趋势分析,对后续的防控与管理做好前期准备,同时在其它类似的自然风险中也有较大的应用前景。 |
| 关键词: 水问题;趋势分析;联系数;五元效应全偏联系数;偏正联系数;偏负联系数;趋势曲线 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV213 |
| 基金项目:国家科技攻关计划,国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| The effect full partial connection of five element connection number and its application in trend analysis of water problems |
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JIN Juliang, XU Jirong, CHEN Menglu, ZHANG Haoyu, NING Shaowei, CHEN Pengfei
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School of Civil Engineering and Water Conservancy Engineering,Hefei University of Technology
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| Abstract: |
| in order to further extend the definition, expression formula, description of physical connotation and analysis and application of five-element effect full partial connection number,and the analysis and application of examples, based on the study of expression formula and physical connotation the three-element partial positive connection number and the negative connection number of three-element effect full partial connection number, the calculation formula of of five-element effect full partial connection number is put forward, then, with the help of the area of the trend curve of the partial connection number to further explain it, extend the range of the application, and apply it to the actual analysis of water problems, the results show that:There is a high degree of consistency between five-element effect full partial connection number and the five-element fourth-order full partial connection number for the dynamic analysis and evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Sichuan Province, moreover, the five-element effect full partial connection number can more clearly reflect the development trend of the evaluation object, the calculation process is more simple,and the evaluation result is more reasonable and more in line with the physical significance of the partial connection number; the diagnosis of the vulnerability index of agricultural drought by the five-element effect full partial connection number is consistent with the actual situation, and the four indexes fluctuate greatly with the change of the year, and the four indexes have great influence on the comprehensive evaluation results of drought vulnerability. Through the application of the five-element effect full partial connection number in different cases, the more reasonable and credible calculation results are obtained,, as the first-order partial connection coefficient of the connection number, the five-element effect full partial connection number can more intuitively reflect the differences between samples, more profoundly reveal the trend analysis of the set pair events, make preparations for the follow-up prevention and control and management, and also have great application prospects in other similar natural risks. |
| Key words: water problems; trend analysis; connection number; five-element effect full partial connection number; partial positive connection number; partial negative connection number; trend curve |
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