| 引用本文: | 杨 丽,刘海军,唐晓培,等.气候变化下河北省宁晋县参考作物蒸散量变化趋势及敏感性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| ,et al.气候变化下河北省宁晋县参考作物蒸散量变化趋势及敏感性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】宁晋县是河北省最大的粮食生产县，灌溉对于保障当地的粮食生产具有决定性的作用，因此深入分析气候变化及其蒸散发的变化对于该区域的作物种植管理和灌溉计划制定具有重要意义。【方法】根据1981—2018年河北省宁晋县气象站的逐日气象资料，计算了极端气候指数，并利用FAO56 Penman-Monteith公式计算了参考作物蒸散量（ET0）。分析了各气象要素、极端气候指数和ET0的变化趋势，并利用敏感性分析找出影响ET0变化的主要气象因子。【结果】1981—2018年河北省宁晋县降水量无明显变化趋势，平均温度呈显著上升趋势，日照时数、相对湿度和风速呈显著下降趋势；极端高温指标呈上升趋势，极端低温指标呈下降趋势，极端降水指标无显著变化。【结论】对于ET0年均值变化，相对湿度是其主要影响因子，对于ET0月均值变化，夏季对ET0影响最大的气象因素为净辐射，其他季节，相对湿度对ET0影响最大；风速和辐射的降低不仅抵消了温度升高和相对湿度降低对ET0的正影响，还使得ET0呈下降趋势，但下降趋势不显著。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化;极端气候;参考作物蒸散量;敏感性分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S161.4 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| Changing Trend and Sensitivity Analysis of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Ningjin County, Hebei Province by Considering Climate Change |
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract: 【Objective】Ningjin County is the largest grain production county in Hebei Province. Irrigation plays a decisive role in ensuring local food production. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze climate change and its evapotranspiration change to improve crop planting management and irrigation planning. 【Method】According to the daily meteorological data of Ningjin County weather station from 1981 to 2018, the extreme climate indexes were calculated, and the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) was calculated by FAO56 Penman-Monteith formula. The change trend of meteorological elements, extreme climate indexes and ET0 were analyzed, and the main meteorological factors influencing the change of ET0 were found out by sensitivity analysis. 【Result】The results showed that the precipitation of Ningjin County in Hebei Province has no obvious change trend from 1981 to 2018, the average temperature increased significantly, and the sunshine hours, relative humidity and wind speed decreased significantly. The extreme temperature indexes for high temperature events showed an upward trend and that for low temperature events showed a downward trend, and the extreme precipitation indexes has no significant change. 【Conclusion】For the annually average ET0, the relative humidity is the main influencing factor. And for the monthly average ET0, the meteorological factor that has the greatest influence on ET0 in summer is net radiation, while in other seasons, the relative humidity has the greatest influence on ET0. The decreases of wind speed and radiation offset the positive influence of temperature rise and relative humidity drop on ET0, and lastly result in ET0 decline. However, the decline trend of ET0 was not significant. |
| Key words: climate change; extreme climate; reference crop evapotranspiration; sensitivity analysis |
