| 摘要: |
| 受气候变化和人类活动影响,西拉木伦河流域水资源短缺问题变得尤为突出,定量识别气候变化和人类活动对西拉木伦河流域径流变化的影响程度,对水资源合理开发利用具有重要作用。以西拉木伦河流域为研究对象,采用逐步多元回归、SCRCQ法等方法,揭示引起流域径流变化的主导因素,量化气候变化与人类活动对河流域径流的的影响程度。结果表明：年径流的变化最主要受到夏季降水的影响,其次是夏季平均气温。T1(1972-1981年)、T2(1982-1997年)、T3(1998-2015年)阶段降水对径流变化的影响程度分别为0.26%、17.51%、26.13%；人类活动对径流变化的影响程度分别为99.74%、82.49%、73.88%。各阶段径流的变化主要是由人类活动导致,但随着时间推移,降水对径流的影响作用增强,人类活动减弱。 |
| 关键词: 西拉木伦河流域;气候变化;人类活动;贡献率 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P333 |
| 基金项目:延安大学校级博士研究启动项目(YDBK2017-19, YDBK2019-35, YDBK2019-36) |
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| Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Runoff of the Xilamulun River |
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hanconghui1, xixiaokang2
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1.Chifeng Hydrology Survey Bureau;2.Shaanxi Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Bureau
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| Abstract: |
| Affected by climate change and human activities, the shortage of water resources in the Xilamulun River Basin has become particularly prominent. Quantitative identification of the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in the Xilamulun River Basin and the rational development of water resources Use has an important role. This paper takes the Xilamulun River Basin as the research object, adopts stepwise multiple regression, SCRCQ method and other methods to reveal the leading factors that cause the runoff changes of the basin and quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff of the river basin. The results show that the annual runoff changes are mainly affected by summer precipitation, followed by the summer average temperature. T1 (1972-1981), T2 (1982-1997), T3 (1998-2015) stages of precipitation impact on runoff changes were 0.26%, 17.51%, 26.13%; the impact of human activities on runoff changes They are 99.74%, 82.49% and 73.88% respectively. The changes in runoff at various stages are mainly caused by human activities, but with the passage of time, the effect of precipitation on runoff increases and human activities weaken. |
| Key words: Xilamulun River Basin; climate change; human activities; contribution rate |
