| 引用本文: | 侯恩光,张升第,王如岩,等.大汶河流域泰安段水质变化及其与水量响应关系研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| HOU En-guang,ZHANG Sheng-di,WANG Ru-yan,et al.大汶河流域泰安段水质变化及其与水量响应关系研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 大汶河流域泰安段水质变化及其与水量响应关系研究 |
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侯恩光1, 张升第1, 王如岩1, 张春霞1, 杨会清1, 段建筑1, 高振勇2, 谭秀翠2
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1.泰安市水文局 泰安;2.山东农业大学 泰安
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究大汶河流域泰安段水量水质响应关系,制定科学合理的水污染防治策略。【方法】依据大汶河流域泰安段7个水质站、1个水文站的逐月实测资料,采用季节性Kendall检验法对水质指标进行趋势分析,并用Copula函数构建水量与水质的二维、三维联合分布,系统分析水量水质变化规律。【结果】在时间上,2010-2019年大汶河流域泰安段COD与NH3-N的浓度均呈下降趋势,季节性Kendall检验结果显示71%的评价结果为高度显著下降趋势；在空间上,上游到下游的COD与NH3-N浓度呈下降趋势。大汶口站流量与水质关系表明,由非汛期到汛期,COD与NH3-N的浓度分别下降6%、37%,IV类水达标月份占比提高10%。基于Frank Copula函数的流量与水质二维联合分布表明,当流量与水质浓度增大时,联合概率值越大；当联合概率一定时,水质浓度随着流量的增大而降低,并趋于稳定；由联合概率等值线图可以判定任意流量下各指标水质浓度的发生概率。基于Clayton Copula函数的降水量、流量与水质的三维联合分布表明,联合概率值小于0.6时,随着降水量、流量、水质浓度的增大,三者联合概率值增大,主要沿着流量增大的方向变化；当联合概率值大于0.6时,COD与NH3-N的三维联合概率的演变趋势发生变化。【结论】大汶河流域泰安段水量与水质存在密切关系,Copula函数适用于构建大汶河流域泰安段的水量水质的联合分布。 |
| 关键词: 大汶河流域;水质;水量;二维Copula联合分布;三维Copula联合分布 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:X824 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Study on Water Quality Change and its Relationship with Water Quantity in Tai’an Section of Dawen River Basin |
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HOU En-guang1, ZHANG Sheng-di1, WANG Ru-yan1, ZHANG Chun-xia1, YANG Hui-qing1, DUAN Jian-zhu1, GAO Zhen-yong2, TAN Xiu-cui2
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1.Hydrological Bureau of Taian City,Tai’an;2.Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Water quality and water quantity are the dual attributes of water resources, and there is a close relationship between them. In general, water quality changes of the river are caused by water quantity over different periods. 【Objective】The objective is to study the response relationship between water quantity and quality in Tai’an section of Dawen River Basin, and formulate scientific and reasonable water pollution control strategies. 【Method】Based on the monthly measured data of 7 water quality stations and 1 hydrology station in Tai’an section of Dawen River Basin, the seasonal Kendall test method was used to analyze the trend of water quality, and the Copula function was used to construct the two-dimensional and three-dimensional joint distribution of water quantity and water quality. 【Result】During 2010-2019, the concentrations of COD and NH3-N showed a downward trend in Tai’an section of Dawen River Basin. Seasonal Kendall test showed that 71% of the evaluation results were a highly significant downward trend. From upstream to downstream, the concentrations of COD and NH3-N showed a downward trend. In Dawenkou station, the relationship between flow and water quality showed that from non-flood season to flood season, the concentrations of COD and NH3-N decreased by 6% and 37% respectively, and the month’s proportion of reaching class IV water standards increased by 10%. The two-dimensional joint distribution of flow and water quality based on Frank Copula function shows that the joint probability increases with the increase of flow and water concentration. When the joint probability is constant, the water quality concentration decreases with the increase of flow and tends to be stable. The occurrence probability of water quality concentration of each index under any flow can be determined according to the contour map. The three-dimensional joint distribution of precipitation, flow and water quality based on Clayton Copula function shows that when the joint probability value is less than 0.6, with the increase of precipitation, flow and water quality concentration, the joint probability value increases, mainly along the direction of flow increase. When the joint probability value is greater than 0.6, the evolution trend of three-dimensional joint probability of COD and NH3-N changes. 【Conclusion】There is a close relationship between water quantity and water quality in Tai’an section of Dawen River Basin. Copula function is suitable for constructing the joint distribution of water quantity and water quality in Tai’an section of Dawen River Basin. |
| Key words: Dawen River Basin; water quality; water quantity; two-dimensional copula joint distribution; three-dimensional copula joint distribution |
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