| 引用本文: | 查显宝,王双涛,罗平平,等.降水时空分布及变化特征分析-以安徽省为例[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,():-. |
| ZHA Xianbao,WANG Shuangtao,LUO Pingping,et al.降水时空分布及变化特征分析-以安徽省为例[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,():-. |
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| 降水时空分布及变化特征分析-以安徽省为例 |
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查显宝,王双涛,罗平平,等
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长安大学水利与环境学院
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| 摘要: |
| 2021年7月河南省郑州市突发极端降水事件，引起公众对降水变化的广泛关注。研究区域降水的时空变化规律，可为科学制定降水变化应对策略提供依据。本文基于1960-2019年安徽省24个气象站点的降水日值数据，采用趋势分析、突变检验等方法研究降水时空分布特征和动态变化趋势。结论如下：1) 降水量自北向南递增，夏季降水约占全年降水量40%；雨日呈“南频北稀”、“山区多，平原少”的态势，降水和雨日高值中心出现在皖南山区和大别山区，低值中心位于淮北平原地区。2) 年降水量整体呈增势，增加的站点共22个。总雨日数呈减少趋势，中小雨雨日数显著减少，大雨和暴雨雨日呈增加趋势。3) 全省共12个站点存在降水突变年；区域降水量突变检验仅江淮平原(1968；2012)和皖南山区(2008)存在潜在突变年。安徽省降水趋向集中，极端降水和洪涝风险有增加趋势。本研究可为安徽省水资源规划利用及旱涝灾害防控提供借鉴。 |
| 关键词: 降水量; 极端降雨; 雨日; 降水趋势; 安徽省 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P426.61+4 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFE0103800)；京都大学防灾研究所国际合作研究项目(2019W-02)。 |
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| Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Variation Characteristics of Precipitation-A Case Study of Anhui Province. |
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ZHA Xianbao1,2,3,2,4,5,2,6,2,4,7, WANG Shuangtao1,2,3,2,8, LUO Pingping1,2,3,2,8, XU Chengyi1,2,3,2,8, CAO Zhe1,2,3,2,8, SONG Yitao1,2,3,2,8
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1.Chang'2.'3.an University,School of Water and Environment,Xi'4.an,Shanxi Province,;5.China Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region,Ministry of Education,Chang'6.an University,Xi'7.China;8.an,Shanxi Province
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| Abstract: |
| In July, 2021, the sudden extreme precipitation event in Zhengzhou City, Henan Province caused widespread public concern about the precipitation change. Research on the temporal and spatial distribution of regional precipitation, and formulate scientific strategies to cope with changes in precipitation. Based on the daily precipitation data of 24 meteorological stations in Anhui Province from 1960 to 2019, this paper uses trend analysis and mutation testing to study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and dynamic trend of precipitation in Anhui Province. Result：1) Precipitation increases from north to south, and summer precipitation accounts for about 40% of the annual precipitation; rainy days show a trend of "frequent in the south and sparse in the north", "more mountainous areas but few plains". The high-value centers of precipitation and rainy days appear in the mountainous areas of southern Anhui and the Dabie Mountains, and the low-value centers appear in the Huaibei Plain. 2) The annual precipitation is increasing overall, with 22 stations increasing. The total number of rainy days showed a decreasing trend, the number of medium and light rain days decreased significantly, and the heavy rain and heavy rain days showed an increasing trend. 3) A total of 12 stations in Anhui Province have abrupt precipitation year; the regional precipitation abrupt change test only has a potential abrupt year in the Jianghuai Plain (1969; 2012) and the mountainous area of southern Anhui (2008). The precipitation in Anhui Province tends to be more concentrated, and the probability of extreme precipitation and flood risk tends to increase. This result can provide a reasonable basis for the planning and utilization of water resources and the prevention and control of droughts and floods in Anhui Province. |
| Key words: Precipitation amounts; Extreme precipitation; Rainy day; Precipitation trend; Anhui. |
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