| 引用本文: | 陈金华,刘瑞娜,吴文革,等.江淮不同亚区冬小麦涝渍害气候风险时空演变[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,():-. |
| Chen Jinhua,Liu Ruina,Wu Wenge,et al.江淮不同亚区冬小麦涝渍害气候风险时空演变[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,():-. |
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| 江淮不同亚区冬小麦涝渍害气候风险时空演变 |
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陈金华1, 刘瑞娜2, 吴文革3, 杜祥备3, 周永进3, 孔令聪3, 戴其根4, 霍中洋4
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1.安徽省农业气象中心/安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室;2.安徽省农业气象中心/安徽省农村综合经济信息中心;3.安徽省农业科学院水稻研究所;4.扬州大学农学院/水稻产业工程技术研究院
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】揭示江淮亚区域尺度的小麦全生育期涝渍害气候风险时空演变特征，为不同区域涝渍害精准防控提供支撑。【方法】应用江淮地区苏皖两省143个地面气象观测站数据，通过对小麦全生育期月降水量、月潜在蒸散量的累年平均值数据序列，进行主成分降维与K-Means聚类分析，将研究区域分为5个气候亚区；应用基于标准化前期降水蒸散指数的日尺度小麦涝渍害历史序列数据，分析小麦全生育期各气候亚区的涝渍害时空演变特征。【结果】出苗至越冬期（11月-次年2月）涝渍害年均发生天数和次数的高值区位于江淮之间、沿江江南东部，而返青至成熟期（3-5月）的涝渍害呈明显北少南多纬向分布特征。5个气候亚区生育期内逐旬涝渍害天数，在沿江西部和高海拔山区呈明显的前期少、后期多分布型，即生殖生长阶段的涝渍害气候风险高；在江淮之间和沿江江南东部为平缓型，全生育期均有较为明显的涝渍害；在淮北地区则是在播种出苗期的涝渍害发生频次最高。从年际间变化趋势看，5个气候亚区各旬次的涝渍害发生天数的变异系数普遍偏高，11月下旬至次年2月中旬大部分旬次的涝渍害天数呈显著增加趋势。【结论】苏皖两省小麦全生育期涝渍害风险总体较高，5个气候亚区的涝渍害气候风险时空特征存在明显差异，应针对性提出不同亚区气候适应性防御策略。 |
| 关键词: 江淮地区；冬小麦；气候风险；涝渍害；时空演变 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P49；S16 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD0300905, 2018YFD0300906)、科技助力经济2020重点专项（KJZLJJ202002） |
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| Spatio-temporal evolution of climate-induced risk of waterlogging disaster for winter wheat in each Jianghuai sub-region |
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Chen Jinhua1, Liu Ruina2, Wu Wenge3, Du Xiangbei3, Zhou Yongjin3, Kong Lingcong3, Dai Qigen4, Huo Zhongyang4
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1.Anhui Agrometeorological Center /Anhui Key Lab of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing;2.Anhui Agrometeorological Center / Anhui Rural Comprehensive Economic Information Center;3.Rice Research Institute, Anhui Academy of Agriculture Sciences;4.Agriculture College of Yangzhou University / Research Institute of Rice Industrial Engineering Technology
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Waterlogging is one of the main disasters in winter wheat planting in Jianghuai Region.【Objective】The objective is to reveal the temporal and spatial characteristics of climate-induced risk for winter wheat waterlogging disaster in Jianghuai sub-region scale. It is helpful to construct a practicability waterlogging defense measures for different regions.【Method】Using the meteorological data from 143 surface meteorological observation stations in study region in Anhui and Jiangsu province, the annual mean data series of monthly precipitation and crop potential evapotranspiration in winter wheat growing season were calculated. and the study region was divided into several climatic sub-regions, by analyzing the data series with the methods of Principal Component Analysis and K-means Cluster. Then the temporal and spatial variation of winter wheat waterlogging disaster was revealed in each sub-region, based on the daily historical sequence data from the standardized early precipitation evapotranspiration index. 【Result】(1)The area with the highest annual average occurrence days and times for winter wheat waterlogging were in Jianghuai Watershed Area and East of the Yangtze River from emergence to overwintering stage (November to February of the next year). However, the spatial distribution type of waterlogging from spring regreening to maturation stage (March to May) was a zonal distribution of high in the south and low in the north. (2)The annual average occurrence days of waterlogging for each 10-days in the whole growing season shown an obvious low-high uphill distribution type in West along the Yangtze River and High Mountain Region, approximate horizontal distribution type in Jianghuai Watershed Area and East of the Yangtze River, and high-low downhill distribution type in North of the Huaihe River respectively. (3)The inter-annual variation of waterlogging occurrence days for each 10-days in the whole growing season in the five sub-regions, showed a significant increasing trend from late-November to mid-February of the next year, and the variation coefficients of them were generally high in each sub-region.【Conclusion】Climate-induced risk for winter wheat waterlogging in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces is generally high, and there are obvious different spatio-temporal characteristics in the five sub-regions. Climate adaptability defense strategies in different subregions should be put forward. |
| Key words: Jianghuai Region; winter wheat; climate-induced risk; waterlogging disaster; spatio-temporal evolution |
