| 引用本文: | 李子威,唐湘玲,黎力菊.漓江上游径流演变特征及其影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,(10):-. |
| APGN,唐,黎.漓江上游径流演变特征及其影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,(10):-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究漓江流域径流演变特征及其影响因素。【方法】以上游河段大溶江为例，根据1980—2019年对该流域各气象站和水文站的长期监测数据，采用Pettitt突变检验、Mann-Kenddall检验法、Morlet小波分析等方法分析了径流及气温、降水的变化趋势、突变特征及周期规律。在确定气温、降水与径流的相关性的基础上，建立了气温、降水与径流的多元线性方程。【结果】漓江流域径流表现出减少趋势但不显著，突变年份是2018年，在40a的尺度下漓江流域经历了4个枯~丰变换周期。漓江流域降水量呈增加趋势，突变年份为2015年，降水展现出4次偏多~偏少交替。年均气温呈显著增加趋势，其倾向率为0.38 ℃/10年，突变年份为2016年；整体上发生了2个冷~暖周期变换，1984、2011年为偏冷期中心年份，1981年、2019年为偏暖期中心年份。在气温突变中存在一个震荡周期，其周期为6a。【结论】预测未来漓江流域在40a尺度下由丰水期转为枯水期；漓江流域降水未来为少水期；漓江流域气温在40a尺度下处于偏暖阶段。该流域径流突变点由土地利用的变化、防洪补水工程的修建、气候变化等因素共同所致，降水与气温发生突变时间与华南地区气候转变相一致。 |
| 关键词: 径流;突变检验;影响因素;周期性;漓江流域 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P467 |
| 基金项目:广西自然科学基金(2018JJA150045) |
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| Analysis of runoff evolution characteristics and influencing factors in the upper reaches of Lijiang River |
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APGN1, 唐2, 黎1
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1.Gui’lin University of technology,Gui’lin;2.桂林理工大学
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】To explore the characteristics and influencing factors of runoff evolution in Lijiang River Basin.【Method】Taking Dayun River in the upstream river section as an example, according to the long-term monitoring data of meteorological and hydrological stations in the basin from 1980 to 2019, the variation trend, mutation characteristics and periodic law of runoff, temperature and precipitation are analyzed by using Pettitt mutation test, Mann kenddall test and Morlet wavelet analysis. On the basis of determining the correlation between temperature, precipitation and runoff, the multivariate linear equations of temperature, precipitation and runoff are established.【Result】The runoff of Lijiang River Basin showed a decreasing trend, but not significant. The sudden change year was 2018. At the scale of 40 years, Lijiang River Basin experienced four dry to wet transformation cycles. The precipitation in Lijiang River Basin shows an increasing trend. The abrupt change year is 2015, and the precipitation shows the alternation of more to less for four times. The average annual temperature increased significantly, with a tendency rate of 0.38 ℃ / 10 years and a sudden change year of 2016; On the whole, there are two cold warm cycles. 1984 and 2011 are the central years of the partial cold period, and 1981 and 2019 are the central years of the partial warm period. There is 5~7a an oscillation period in the temperature evolution.【Conclusion】It is predicted that the Lijiang River Basin will change from wet season to dry season in the future; The precipitation in Lijiang River Basin will be in the period of less water in the future; The temperature in the Lijiang River Basin is in a warm stage at the 40A scale. The abrupt change point of runoff in the basin is caused by the change of land use, the construction of flood control and water replenishment projects, climate change and other factors. The abrupt change time of precipitation and temperature is consistent with the climate change in South China. |
| Key words: runoff; Mutation test; Influencing factors; Periodicity; Lijiang River |
