| 摘要: |
| 采用江苏省2010-2019年统计资料，从水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个维度构建水环境安全预警指标体系，利用SD模型模拟预测了江苏省2010-2030年水环境安全预警演变的动态变化；通过设定的现状趋势、经济发展、绿色节水、综合协调4种情景来对比分析不同情景下水环境安全预警变化趋势。研究结果表明:（1）2010-2019年水环境预警警度介于“中警-重警”之间，水环境时空分布不均且承载不足；（2）现状趋势下水环境警度等级为中警；经济发展模式下水环境警度等级为重警；绿色节水和综合协调模式下水环境警度等级为无警。 |
| 关键词: 水环境安全;预警;系统动力学;情境模拟 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV213.4 |
| 基金项目:国家自然基金编号:72004116,名称:环境规制下三峡库区水污染负荷精细测度与分配优化策略研究。 |
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| Analysis on the evolution trend of water resources safety early warning based on system dynamics |
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YUAN Hongchuan1,2,3,4,5,6
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1.College 2.of 3.Hydraulic 4.and 5.Environmental 6.Engineering
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the statistical data of Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2019, the water environment safety early warning indicator system was constructed from the four dimensions of water resources, society, economy, and ecological environment. The SD model was used to simulate and predict the evolution of the water environment safety early warning in Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2030. Changes; through the set of current situation trends, economic development, green water saving, comprehensive coordination of 4 scenarios to compare and analyze the water environment safety early warning change trend under different scenarios. The research results show that: (1) The water environment warning level from 2010 to 2019 is between "medium warning and heavy warning", and the water environment is unevenly distributed in time and space and under-carrying; (2) the water environment warning level is medium under the current trend Police; the water environment alert level under the economic development mode is heavy alert; the water environment alert level under the green water saving and comprehensive coordination mode is no alert. |
| Key words: Water security; Early Warning; System Dynamics; Situational simulation |
