| 引用本文: | 陈正发,李靖,相彪,等.基于SPI的云南省多尺度干旱时空演变特征识别[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| CHEN Zhengfa,LI Jing,XIANG Biao,et al.基于SPI的云南省多尺度干旱时空演变特征识别[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】识别区域干旱时空分布规律和演变特征，对于干旱灾害防控和制定科学的水土资源管理措施具有重要的指导意义。【方法】基于云南省36个气象站近31年的气象数据，采用标准化降雨指数（standardized precipitation index ,SPI）模型，结合GIS空间分析、非参数Mann-kendall趋势检验等研究方法，定量识别云南省多尺度气象干旱时空分布及演变特征。【结果】结果表明：（1）年尺度、季节尺度上SPI均呈现波动趋势，除春季SPI略有增长趋势外，夏季、秋季、冬季和年尺度的SPI均表现为小幅减小趋势，秋季SPI变化幅度最大，冬季变化幅度最小，年尺度SPI分布在-1.95～1.44之间。（2）年尺度干旱频率分布在32.26％～50.00％之间，主导的干旱等级为轻微干旱和极端干旱，干旱频率高值区分布在文山、红河、昆明、楚雄、德宏地区。（3）春、夏、秋、冬四个季节干旱频率分别为39.86%、39.83%、38.43%、41.33%，尽管四个季节干旱频率差异较小，但不同季节主导的干旱等级差异较大，除春季外，各季节的主导性干旱等级均包含极端干旱；干旱等级越高，干旱范围也越广。（4）年尺度上除5个站点干旱演变表现为增强趋势外，其余站点无明显的演变趋势；春季大部分站点干旱演变表现为减小趋势，而夏季、秋季、冬季则分别有11、6、2个站点呈现出明显的增强趋势。【结论】云南省年尺度和季节尺度干旱频率分布及演变趋势具有明显的分异性特征，区域干旱以季节性干旱为主，其中春旱、冬旱的干旱频率和等级总体较高，总体上看干旱等级越高对应的干旱范围也越大。 |
| 关键词: 干旱模型;气象干旱;季节性干旱;标准化降雨指数;云南省 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P426.616 |
| 基金项目:云南省基础研究专项面上项目(202201AT070272)；云南省教育厅科研项目(2022J0303)；云南农业大学引进人才科研启动项目(KY2022-29) |
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| Identification of Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics of Multi-scale Drought in Yunnan Province Based on SPI |
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CHEN Zhengfa, LI Jing, XIANG Biao, Duan Qingsong, Li Shufang, Wang Shufang
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College of Water Conservancy,Yunnan Agricultural University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Identifying the spatial-temporal distribution and evolution characteristics of regional drought has important guiding significance for the prevention and control of drought disasters and the formulation of scientific water and soil resources management measures. 【Methods】Based on the meteorological data of 36 meteorological stations in Yunnan Province in recent 31 years, the time-space distribution and evolution characteristics of multi-scale meteorological drought in Yunnan Province are quantitatively identified by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) model, GIS spatial analysis, nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test and other research methods. 【Results】The results show that (1) the SPI on annual and seasonal scales shows a fluctuating trend. Except for the slight increase trend of SPI in spring, the SPI on summer, autumn, winter and annual scales shows a slight decrease trend. The change range of SPI in autumn is the largest and that in winter is the smallest. SPI12 is distributed between -1.95 and 1.44. (2) The annual drought frequency ranges from 32.26% to 50.00%, and the dominant drought grades are mild drought and extreme drought. The high-value areas of drought frequency are distributed in Wenshan, Honghe, Kunming, Chuxiong and Dehong areas. (3) The drought frequencies in spring, summer, autumn and winter were 39.86%, 39.83%, 38.43%, and 41.33% respectively. Although the difference in drought frequency between the four seasons was small, the drought grades dominated by different seasons were quite different. Except for spring, the dominant drought level in each season includes extreme drought; the higher the drought level, the wider the drought range. (4) On the annual scale, except that the drought evolution of 5 stations shows an increasing trend, the other stations have no obvious evolution trend; The drought evolution of most stations showed a decreasing trend in spring, while 11, 6 and 2 stations showed an obvious increasing trend in summer, autumn and winter respectively. 【Conclusion】 The annual scale and seasonal scale drought frequency distribution and evolution trend in Yunnan Province have obvious heterogeneity characteristics. The regional drought is dominated by seasonal drought, among which the spring drought and winter drought are generally higher in frequency and grade. Generally speaking, the higher the drought grade is. The higher the corresponding drought range is also larger. |
| Key words: drought model; meteorological drought; seasonal drought; standardized precipitation index; Yunnan province |
