| 摘要: |
| 【目的】确定经济系统中各要素对江苏省灌溉水变化的节水贡献。【方法】利用CROPWAT模型，量化了2002—2017年江苏省农作物灌溉水量，基于量化结果结合结构分解模型分析江苏省农作物用水的驱动效应，在江苏省投入产出表的框架下分析产业经济和贸易经济对降低灌溉水量的可行性。【结果】生产结构和消费结构调整是近年来遏制灌溉水量攀升的关键驱动因素，2002—2017年分别削减192.9 亿m3和106.2 亿m3的灌溉水量，江苏省通过发展食品制造业（生产经济占比从53%至64%）和国际贸易引入高耗水经济作物降低灌溉用水。【结论】实现经济政策节水的核心在于农产品产业链（以食品制造业为主）的整体升级和高耗水农产品的对外转移，即通过提高农产品附加值和国际引入高耗水经济作物实现农业经济节水。 |
| 关键词: 结构分解模型；灌溉；节水；投入产出模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV213.4 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Research on the Driving Effect of Irrigation Water Change in Jiangsu |
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wanghao, yipeng
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Hohai University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】In order to determine the water-saving contribution of various elements in the economic system to the change of irrigation water in Jiangsu Province, 【Methods】the CROPWAT model was used to quantify the amount of irrigation water for crops in Jiangsu from 2002 to 2017, and based on the quantitative results combined with a structural decomposition model to analyze the driving effect of water use for crops in Jiangsu, and to determine the contribution of various factors to the change of irrigation water in Jiangsu Province. Finally, the feasibility of industrial economy and trade economy for reducing irrigation water is analyzed under the framework of Jiangsu input-output table. 【Results】The research results show that the adjustment of production structure and consumption structure is the key driving factor to curb the rise of irrigation water in recent years. During the study period, the irrigation water was cut by 19.29 billion cubic meters and 10.62 billion cubic meters respectively. Jiangsu Province has reduced irrigation water by developing the food industry (the proportion of the production economy from 53% to 64%) and by introducing high water-consuming cash crops through international trade. 【Conclusion】The core of realizing economic policy water saving lies in the overall upgrading of the agricultural product industry chain (mainly the food industry) and the external transfer of high-water-consuming agricultural products, that is, by increasing the added value of agricultural products and the international introduction of high-water-consuming economic crops. |
| Key words: structural decomposition model,irrigation,water saving,input-output model |
