| 引用本文: | 陈金华,刘瑞娜,吴文革,等.江淮不同亚区冬小麦涝渍害气候风险时空演变[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(6):121-130. |
| CHEN Jinhua,LIU Ruina,WU Wen’ge,et al.江淮不同亚区冬小麦涝渍害气候风险时空演变[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(6):121-130. |
|
| 摘要: |
| 【目的】揭示江淮亚区冬小麦全生育期涝渍害气候风险时空演变特征，为不同区域涝渍害精准防控提供依据。【方法】基于江淮地区苏皖二省境内143个地面气象观测站数据，通过对冬小麦全生育期月降水量、潜在蒸散量序列进行主成分降维与K-Means聚类分析，将研究区划分为5个气候亚区；应用基于标准化前期降水蒸散指数的日尺度冬小麦涝渍害的历史序列数据，分析了冬小麦全生育期各气候亚区的涝渍害的时空演变特征。【结果】出苗—越冬期（11月—次年2月）涝渍害年均发生天数和次数的高值区位于江淮之间、沿江东部，而返青—成熟期（3—5月）的涝渍害则呈北少南多的纬向分布特征。5个气候亚区生育期内逐旬涝渍害天数在沿江西部和高山区域呈明显的前期少、后期多的分布型，生殖生长阶段的涝渍害气候风险高；在江淮之间和沿江东部为平缓型，全生育期均有较为明显的涝渍害；淮北地区则是在播种出苗期的涝渍害发生频次最高。从年际间变化趋势来看，5个气候亚区各旬涝渍害发生天数的变异系数普遍较高，11月下旬—次年2月中旬涝渍害天数大多呈显著增加趋势。【结论】苏皖二省冬小麦全生育期涝渍害风险总体偏高，5个气候亚区的涝渍害气候风险时空特征差异明显，未来应更有针对性地制定不同亚区气候适应性防御策略。 |
| 关键词: 江淮地区；冬小麦；气候风险；涝渍害；时空演变 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2021549 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Spatiotemporal Variation of Climate-induced Waterlogging for Winter Wheat in Jianghuai Region |
|
CHEN Jinhua, LIU Ruina, WU Wen’ge, DU Xiangbei,
ZHOU Yongjin, KONG Lingcong, DAI Qigen, HUO Zhongyang
|
|
1. Anhui Agrometeorological Center/Anhui Key Lab of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing, Hefei 230031, China;
2. Anhui Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Hefei 230031, China;
3. Agriculture College of Yangzhou University/Research Institute of Rice Industrial Engineering Technology, Yangzhou 225009, China
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Background and objective】Waterlogging is a natural disaster facing agricultural production in many countries across the world. Global warming is expected to increase its frequency. The objective of this paper is to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of climate-induced waterlogging for winter wheat in Jianghuai Region in central-southern China. 【Method】The analysis was based on archived meteorological data measured from 143 weather stations across Anhui and Jiangsu provinces, from which we calculated the annual and monthly precipitation, potential evapotranspiration of the winter wheat. We divided the two provinces into a number of sub-regions based on climate and analyzed the data in each sub-region using the principal component analysis and K-means cluster methods. The spatiotemporal variation in waterlogging for each sub-region was calculated from daily standardized antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index. 【Result】①From November to next February, long-lasting waterlogging was mostly likely to occur in the Jianghuai watershed and eastern Yangtze River, while from March to May, it was more likely to happen in the south and less likely in the north of the region. ②In west Yangtze River and in the high mountain areas, the occurrence of waterlogging in each 10 days increased as the crop grew from seedling to harvest, while in the Jianghuai watershed and east Yangtze River, the occurrence of waterlogging was independent of the growing season. In the north of the Huaihe River, the occurrence of waterlogging in the seedling stage was more frequent than in other growing stages. ③Intra-annual variation of waterlogging in each 10-day showed a significant increase from later November to middle of next February, and the variation coefficients was high. 【Conclusion】Climate-induced waterlogging for winter wheat in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces is high but its occurrence varies spatiotemporally. These results are helpful for developing mitigating methods to alleviate the detrimental impact of waterlogging in the two provinces. |
| Key words: Jianghuai Region; winter wheat; climate-induced risk; waterlogging disaster; spatiotemporal variation |
