| 引用本文: | 董海波,陈小平,冯绍元,等.模拟气候变化对极端干旱区棉花产量和水分利用效率的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(9):23-32. |
| DONG Haibo,CHEN Xiaoping,FENG Shaoyuan,et al.模拟气候变化对极端干旱区棉花产量和水分利用效率的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(9):23-32. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究气候变化对极端干旱区棉花生长和产量的影响。【方法】利用2018年新疆策勒绿洲棉田数据对根区水质模型（Root Zone Water Quality Model-version2，RZWQM2）进行率定和验证；基于验证后的模型模拟了1960—2019年气候变化对棉花生育期、产量和灌溉水利用效率（IWUE）的影响；利用相关分析探究了关键气候要素与棉花生育期和产量的相关性。【结果】RZWQM2模型能够较好地模拟极端干旱区绿洲棉田各土层含水量（除0.15~0.25 m外）、棉花生长和产量，平均一致性指数（IOA）>0.75。棉花的出苗期、花期、吐絮期和成熟期均推迟，平均每10年推迟时间约为1.1、2.1、3.5、3.5 d；棉花产量和IWUE均呈下降趋势，每10年下降幅度分别为45.95 kg/hm2和0.13 kg/（mm·hm2）。气温和太阳辐射量对棉花生长有显著影响，其中最低气温是影响棉花生育期的主导因子，最高气温对棉花产量有一定负面影响；太阳辐射量则是引起产量变化的主导因子。【结论】研究结果可为绿洲农业应对气候变化的影响提供一定的科学指导。 |
| 关键词: RZWQM2；气候变化；棉花产量；灌溉水利用效率；绿洲农业 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022095 |
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| Effects of Climate Change on Seed Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Cotton in Arid Regions: A Simulation Study |
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DONG Haibo, CHEN Xiaoping, FENG Shaoyuan, ZHANG Youliang, WU Hao
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College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】One challenge facing agricultural production in many countries is the potential influence of global warming. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the potential impact of climate change on cotton production in arid regions in north China.【Method】The study was based on numerical simulation. The root zone water quality model (RZWQM2) was calibrated using data measured in 2018 from cotton fields at Qira Oasis in Xinjiang. The validated model was then used to analyze the effect of climate change (1960—2019) on growth, yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) of the cotton. The relationship between climate factors and cotton yield was analyzed using correlation methods.【Result】 Comparison with measured data shows that the RZWQM2 is accurate to simulate change in water content in the soil profile except in the depth of 0.15~0.25 m. It also adequately predicts the cotton growth and yield, with the average consistency index > 0.75. The simulation results show that the emergence, flowering, cracked B1 and maturity stage of the cotton were delayed approximately by 1.1, 2.1, 3.5 and 3.5 d per decade, respectively, from 1960—2019 due to temperature rise. The simulated seed yield and IWUE of the cotton decreased by 45.95 kg/hm2 and 0.13 kg/(mm·hm2) per decade, respectively, from 1990—2019. Correlation analysis reveals that air temperature and solar radiation affect cotton growth most significantly. The minimum temperature is the dominant determinant of cotton growth, while the maximum temperature has a negative effect on cotton yield. Among others, solar radiation is the most important determinant of cotton yield.【Conclusion】Using the calibrated numerical model, we analyze the potential impact of climate change and different meteorological factors on growth and yield of cotton in arid regions in north China. The results provide baseline to understand how cotton production will change with climate change in the Oasis regions in Xinjiang. |
| Key words: RZWQM2; climate change; cotton production; IWUE; oasis agriculture |
