| 引用本文: | 李晓琳,肖 颖,邓姜艳,等.基于空间转移图谱的异龙湖流域土地利用时空变化特征及趋势预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(11):107-113. |
| LI Xiaolin,XIAO Ying,DENG Jiangyan,et al.基于空间转移图谱的异龙湖流域土地利用时空变化特征及趋势预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,41(11):107-113. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】明晰高原湖泊流域土地利用动态变化特征，可为实现湖泊生态系统可持续发展奠定基础。【方法】采用空间转移图谱和CA-Markov模型方法，开展高原湖泊异龙湖流域土地利用变化特征及趋势预测方面的研究。【结果】①1999—2005年异龙湖流域土地利用以耕地为主，2010—2018年土地利用则以林地为主；②1999—2018年耕地、草地、未利用地和水域面积持续减少，减少面积分别为50.60、27.17、24.72、6.66 km2；与之相反，林地和建设用地明显增加。林地增加的来源主要是耕地、草地和未利用地；建设用地的增加主要来源于耕地和未利用地。③预计到2050年建设用地和林地会持续增加，水域面积将减少。【结论】综上可知，控制建设用地增加和湖泊面积缩小是未来异龙湖流域土地资源管理的重要目标。 |
| 关键词: 异龙湖流域；土地利用；转移矩阵；空间变化；CA-Markov模型 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2021617 |
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| Spatio-temporal Change in Land Usage in Yilong Lake Basin Calculated Using Spatial Transfer Map |
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LI Xiaolin, XIAO Ying, DENG Jiangyan, ZHENG Yi
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1. College of Ecology and Environment, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China;
2. Yunnan Open University, Kunming 650500, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Yilong Lake is located in Yunnan province. Like many other regions in China, its land usage has undergone change over the past decades. The purpose of this paper is to quantify this change using satellite imageries.【Method】The analysis is based on satellite imageries acquired from 1999 to 2018 from the basin. Land use transfer matrix and the CA-Markov model were used to analyze the spatial distribution and change in land usage during this period. 【Result】 ①The land use was dominated by croplands from 1999 to 2005 and forest from 2010 to 2018. ②The areas of cropland, pasture, natural land and surface water bodies had been in decline from 1999 to 2018, with their overall areas reduced by 50.60, 27.17, 24.72 and 6.66 km2, respectively. In contrast, forest and urban areas had both increased significantly. The increase in forest areas is mainly due to the conversion of cropland, pasture and natural lands, while the increase in urban areas is mainly due to the use of cropland and natural land. ③It is expected that by 2050, urban and forest areas in the region will increase to 98.62 and 161.03 km2, respectively, while the area of surface water will decrease. 【Conclusion】 The important goal in land resource management in the Yilong lake watershed in the future should be to control the increase in urban area and the decrease in surface water bodies. |
| Key words: Yilong Lake Basin; land use; transition matrix; spatial change; CA-Markov model |
