| 引用本文: | 吴舒祺,么嘉棋,候文星,等.太湖流域降水变化及其与组合大气环流的关系[J].灌溉排水学报,2023,42(3):97-103. |
| WU Shuqi,YAO Jiaqi,HOU Wenxing,et al.太湖流域降水变化及其与组合大气环流的关系[J].灌溉排水学报,2023,42(3):97-103. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探明太湖流域降水变化及与大气环流的多尺度效应。【方法】采用Mann Kendall（MK）、Modified Mann Kendall（MMK）趋势检验法以及小波相干分析（Wavelet Coherence, WTC）、多小波相干分析（Multiple Wavelet Coherence, MWC），对太湖流域1960—2020年30个气象站的降水变化及其与单个和组合大气环流因子的多尺度振荡关系进行分析。【结果】①MMK及MK的趋势值在年尺度降水及季节尺度降水的空间分布相似，但显著性存在差异。年降水上升趋势最大，而冬季降水上升趋势最小。MMK可以检测出MK无法检测出的显著性，尤其是对于春季降水。②WTC分析结果表明，太湖流域降水与大气环流因子具有复杂的非线性关系，不同时域具有明显差异。③从单要素来看，EASM是太湖流域最具影响力的遥相关；在多要素组合中，Prep-AO-PDO-ENSO-EASM-DMI组合对流域降水影响最大。【结论】单独的主导遥相关并不能很好地解释降水与大气环流的关系，具有最高显著功率数百分比(POSP)的大气环流组合可作为解释降水变化的最佳组合。 |
| 关键词: MMK趋势检验；多小波相干；组合大气环流；多尺度效应；显著功率百分比 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022279 |
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| Variation of Precipitation in Taihu Lake Basin and Its Relationship with Atmospheric Circulation |
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WU Shuqi, YAO Jiaqi, HOU Wenxing, A Duo, ZHAO Wenji
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1. College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China;
2. College of Geodesy and Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China;
3. National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Beijing 100124, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Precipitation and its variation is the driver of all ecological functions in a catchment. It is affected by many factors. This paper investigates the variation in precipitation and its multi-scale correlations with atmospheric circulation in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB), China. 【Method】The analysis was based on precipitation measured from 1960 to 2020 from 30 meteorological stations across the basin. Its multi-scale oscillations, as well as correlation with single and combined atmospheric circulation factors were analyzed using the Mann Kendall (MK), modified Mann Kendall (MMK), wavelet coherence (WTC), and multiple wavelet coherence (MWC). 【Result】① The annual and seasonal trends identified by MMK and MK from the precipitation series was similar, but the significance differed between the two methods. We found the largest upward trend in annual precipitation, but the seasonal precipitation in winter had the smallest upward trend. MMK detected significance that MK failed to identify, especially for spring precipitation. ② WTC found that the precipitation and atmospheric circulation factors were nonlinearly correlated in a complex way, but their correlation varied with time. ③ For single atmospheric circulation factors, the EASM was the most influential teleconnection affecting precipitaton in the TLB. Among the multivariates, Prep-AO-PDO-ENSO-EASM-DMI had the greatest impact on precipitation in TLB. 【Conclusion】The dominant tele-correlation alone cannot explain the relationship between precipitation and atmospheric circulation, and a combination of atmospheric circulation factors and the highest percentage of significant power (POSP) offered the best explanation for precipitation variation in TLB. |
| Key words: MMK trend test; multi-wavelet coherence; combined atmospheric circulation; multi-scale effect; percentage of significant power |
