| 引用本文: | 席海潮,解阳阳,刘赛艳,等.径流变异对黑河流域上游径流统计特征与频率分析的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,2023,42(7):75-85. |
| XI Haichao,XIE Yangyang,LIU Saiyan,et al.径流变异对黑河流域上游径流统计特征与频率分析的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,2023,42(7):75-85. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】受环境变化的影响，流域径流表现出显著的变异特征，研究径流统计特征和频率分析对水资源规划和水利工程的建设具有重要意义。【方法】以黑河流域上游年径流量和年最大洪峰流量为研究对象，分别采用定点变宽窗口（A型窗口）和变点定宽窗口（B型窗口）2种分析窗口截取的径流序列（窗口序列）进行分析，利用优化适线法分析窗口序列的统计特征，并推求径流设计值。应用线性趋势分析法、MMK检验法和启发式分割法对窗口序列进行趋势和突变分析。【结果】①年径流量估计参数Ex在A、B型窗口分析中呈显著增加趋势并存在突变，Cv在A型窗口分析中呈显著增加趋势，在B型窗口分析中存在突变。Cs在B型窗口分析中存在突变。年径流量不同频率设计值在A、B型窗口分析中呈显著增加趋势并存在突变。②年最大洪峰估计参数Cv在A型窗口分析中存在突变，Ex在B型窗口分析中存在突变，Cs在B型窗口分析中呈显著增加趋势并存在突变。年最大洪峰不同频率设计值在A型窗口分析中存在增加趋势但不显著并存在突变，在B型窗口分析中存在显著增加趋势和突变。【结论】当径流过程发生变异时，在径流序列足够长的情况下，径流序列的长度越长，越能削弱径流序列波动性对径流序列统计特征和频率分析的影响。对于波动剧烈的径流序列，更应该使用长序列进行水文频率分析。 |
| 关键词: 时变特征；频率分析；趋势检验；启发式分割法；黑河流域 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022247 |
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| Runoff Variation and Its Effect on Statistical Characteristics and Frequency of Runoff in the Upper Reaches of Heihe River Basin |
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XI Haichao, XIE Yangyang, LIU Saiyan, HUANG Chengjian, SHEN Teng, ZHANG Qin
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1. College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China;
2. Modern Rural Water Conservancy Research Institute, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Statistical characteristics and frequency of runoff is crucial for water resources planning and water resource project construction, especially when runoff in watersheds shows significant variation due to environmental changes. Taking upper reach of the Heihe River basin as an example, this paper examines the impact of runoff variation on statistical characteristics and frequency of the runoff analysis.【Method】Annual runoff and annual maximum flooding flow measured from the reach were used in our study. Two types of analysis windows, the fixed-point variable-width window (Type A window) and the variable-point fixed-width window (Type B window), were used to extract the runoff sequences (window sequences) for analysis. The P-Ш type curves were utilized to analyze the statistical characteristics of the window series, from which we calculated the runoff design values. The trends and discontinuity in the window series were identified using the linear trend analysis, MMK trend test, and heuristic segmentation method.【Result】① The estimated annual runoff parameters (Ex) showed a significant increasing trend and abrupt changes in both Type A and Type B window analyses. The coefficient of variation (Cv) showed a significant increasing trend in Type A window analysis and abrupt changes in Type B window analysis. The coefficient of skewness (Cs) showed abrupt changes in Type B window analysis. Design values for different frequencies of the annual runoff showed a significant increasing trend and abrupt changes in both types of windows. ② The estimated parameters in the annual maximum showed abrupt changes in Type A window analysis, while the Ex showed abrupt changes in Type B window analysis. Cs showed a significant increasing trend and abrupt changes in Type B window analysis. Design values for different frequencies of the annual maximum flooding did not identify any significant increasing trend in Type A window analysis but showed sudden changes. In Type B window analysis, there was a significant increasing trend and abrupt changes.【Conclusion】 Analyzing runoff processes should use long sequences to capture the whole spectrum of the runoff pattern. Using long runoff series can mitigate the influence of extreme runoffs on statistical characteristics and frequency of runoff analysis. |
| Key words: time-varying characteristics; frequency analysis; trend test; heuristic segmentation method; Heihe River Basin |
