| 引用本文: | 刘赛艳,张永江,解阳阳,等.基于CA-Markov模型的淮河流域土地利用变化研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2024,43(1):52-59. |
| LIU Saiyan,ZHANG Yongjiang,XIE Yangyang,et al.基于CA-Markov模型的淮河流域土地利用变化研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2024,43(1):52-59. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究淮河流域土地利用变化特征并预测淮河流域2030年土地利用变化，实现流域土地资源的合理开发利用。【方法】基于淮河流域1990—2020年共7期的土地利用数据，采用土地利用转移矩阵和土地利用动态度分析淮河流域土地利用变化特征。基于元胞自动机-马尔科夫（CA-Markov）模型模拟淮河流域2010和2015年的土地利用格局，并在满足一定的精度条件下，预测淮河流域2030年的土地利用变化趋势。【结果】①耕地和建设用地面积占淮河流域土地利用面积的80%以上，是淮河流域最主要的两种土地利用类型；②耕地的减少和建设用地的持续扩张是淮河流域1990—2020年土地利用最为明显的变化特征；③基于CA-Markov模型模拟的2010年和2015年土地利用的Kappa系数分别为0.937和0.944，模拟精度较高；④预测的淮河流域2030年土地利用变化显示：耕地的减少和建设用地的扩张仍然是主要趋势，但二者变化幅度放缓，林地和草地的变化不显著，水域面积继续增加。【结论】淮河流域建设用地大幅度扩张以及耕地面积持续减少应引起重视，基于CA-Markov模型模拟的2030年土地利用变化可为流域未来土地利用开发提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 土地利用；CA-Markov模型；转移矩阵；Kappa系数；淮河流域 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2023309 |
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| Research on land use change in Huaihe River basin based on the CA-Markov model |
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LIU Saiyan, ZHANG Yongjiang, XIE Yangyang, ZHANG Qin, XI Haichao
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Yangzhou University, a. College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering;
b. Modern Rural Water Conservancy Research Institute, Yangzhou 225009, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Study the characteristics of land use change in Huaihe River Basin and predict the land use change in Huaihe River Basin in 2030, in order to achieve reasonable development and utilization of land resources in the basin.【Method】The land use transfer matrix and land use dynamic were used to analyze the land use change characteristics based on the land use data of Huaihe River Basin from 1990 to 2020. The land use pattern of Huaihe River Basin in 2010 and 2015 were simulated based on the cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model, and the land use change trend of the basin in 2030 is predicted under the condition of meeting a certain degree of accuracy. 【Result】①Cultivated land and construction land area account for more than 80% of the land use area, which were the two most dominant land use types in Huaihe River Basin; ②The decrease of cultivated land and the continuous expansion of construction land were the most obvious change characteristics of land use in Huaihe River Basin in the past 30 years; ③The land use in 2010 and 2015 simulated by the CA-Markov model based on the Kappa coefficients of 2010 and 2015 simulated based on CA-Markov model are 0.937 and 0.944, respectively, with high simulation accuracy; ④The predicted land use changes in Huaihe River Basin in 2030 showed that the reduction of arable land and the expansion of land for construction are still the main trends, but the magnitude of the changes in both of them is slowing down, and the changes in forest land and grassland are not significant, but the area of watershed continues to increase.【Conclusion】The substantial expansion of construction land and the continuous decrease of arable land in Huaihe River Basin should be emphasized, and the land use change in 2030 simulated based on CA-Markov model can provide a reference for the future land use development of the basin. |
| Key words: land use; CA-Markov model; transfer matrix; Kappa coefficient; Huaihe River basin |
