| 引用本文: | 王 峰,任建成,卢晓宁.黄河三角洲地区蒸发量时空特征及预测模型[J].灌溉排水学报,2024,43(3):52-60. |
| WANG Feng,REN Jiancheng,LU Xiaoning.黄河三角洲地区蒸发量时空特征及预测模型[J].灌溉排水学报,2024,43(3):52-60. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究黄河三角洲地区蒸发量特征，为该地区水资源利用等提供合理参考。【方法】利用黄河三角洲地区蒸发量资料，采用气候统计方法及GIS系统，探究黄河三角洲地区蒸发量时空特征，探明蒸发量与气候因子之间的关系并建立预测模型。【结果】①黄河三角洲地区春季、夏季和年蒸发量呈显著下降趋势；秋季和冬季蒸发量呈不显著上升趋势。蒸发量空间分布大致上均由东北向西南递减。②黄河三角洲地区蒸发量变化具有明显的周期性特征。春季蒸发量主循环周期为10 a；夏季蒸发量主循环周期为10 a和5 a；秋季蒸发量主循环周期为13、6 a和3 a；冬季蒸发量主循环周期为10~11 a和5~6 a；年蒸发量主循环周期为10 a。③黄河三角洲地区年蒸发量与年降水量、年日照时间、年平均风速、年平均云量和年平均气温日较差显著相关，与年平均气温相关性不显著。各季节蒸发量与各季节降水量、日照时间、相对湿度、云量及气温日较差显著相关，与其他因子相关性各有不同。④黄河三角洲地区相对湿度对各时段蒸发量影响效果均显著，风速对春季、夏季、冬季蒸发量的影响均显著，气温对春季和夏季蒸发量影响显著，日照时间对年蒸发量的影响效果明显，降水量对春季蒸发量的负向影响效果明显。模拟预测的各时段蒸发量实测值和模拟值都分布在拟合线附近，模型预测效果均较好，各时段蒸发量模拟值合格率与回归方程解释能力吻合度较高。【结论】黄河三角洲地区蒸发受多种气候因子共同影响，存在一定的“蒸发悖论”现象，蒸发量具有明显的周期性特征，空间分布大致上由东北向西南递减，回归预测模型效果较好。 |
| 关键词: 蒸发量；变化特征；模型研究；黄河三角洲 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2023148 |
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| Spatiotemporal variation in evaporation and its modelling in the Yellow River delta |
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WANG Feng, REN Jiancheng, LU Xiaoning
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1. Shandong Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Jinan 250031, China;
2. Binzhou Meteorological Bureau, Binzhou 256612, China; 3. Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The Yellow River delta is a distinctive ecosystem in China, fostering a rich array of plant and animal species. Evaporation is a main component of the hydrological process in the delta. In this paper, we study the spatiotemporal variation in evaporation in the region and present a model to elucidate its relationship with meteorological factors.【Method】The study is based on evaporation and meteorological factors measured in the region; their relationship is analyzed using climate statistics method and GIS.【Result】① Temporarily, annual change of evaporation in spring and summer had been decreasing at significant level, while its change in autumn and winter did not show identifiable trends. Spatially, the evaporation decreased from the northeast to the southwest. ② Seasonal evaporation in the delta showed periodicity. In spring, the primary cycle spanned 10 years, and in summer the periodicity was 5 and 10 years. Autumn displayed cycles of 3, 6, and 13 years, while winter showcased periods of 5-6 and 10-11 years. Overall, the annual evaporation cycle manifested a 10-year period. ③ Annual evaporation was significantly correlated with precipitation, sunshine period, average wind speed, average cloud coverage and average daily temperature, but not correlated to average temperature. Seasonal evaporation was significantly related to precipitation, sunshine duration, relative humidity, cloud coverage and daily temperature. ④ The relative humidity had a significant impact on evaporation regardless of seasons. In contrast, wind speed impacted evaporation only in spring, summer and winter; temperature impacted evaporation in spring and summer; sunshine duration impacted annual evaporation; precipitation negatively impacted evaporation in spring. The measured and modelled evaporation in all seasons agreed well. 【Conclusion】Evaporation in the Yellow River delta is affected by a variety of climate factors, and it shows the “evaporation paradox” phenomenon. Evaporation shows both seasonal and annul periodicity; spatially, it decreases from the northeast to the southwest. The regression model can accurately predict the change in evaporation with meteorological factors. |
| Key words: evaporation; change characteristics; model research; Yellow River delta |
