| 摘要: |
| 在对现有生态补偿标准核算方法和博弈模型研究总结的基础上,对受水区和水源区的支付、受偿意愿进行调研分析,提出基于意愿分布函数的生态补偿博弈模型,并与普通博弈模型计算结果进行对比分析。基于意愿分布函数的生态补偿博弈模型通过调研结果把意愿密度函数概化成指数分布,同时考虑水源区接受出价(要价)的概率和受水区出价(接受要价)的概率,更实际地反映了受水区和水源区均追求自己利益最大化的本质,即受水区出价越高,水源区接受出价的概率越大；在水源区实际受偿意愿已知的情况下,受水区会在保障自己利益较大的前提下提高出价,尽早达成协议。与普通博弈模型相比,基于意愿分布函数的生态补偿博弈模型克服了普通博弈模型假设水源区受偿意愿为均匀分布、无法准确反应实际情况的缺点,使模型计算结果不再接近均值；同时增加考虑受水区支付意愿分布,理论基础和实际调研相结合,计算结果更加可靠。 |
| 关键词: 意愿分布函数；博弈模型；生态补偿标准 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S161.1 |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Research on the ecological compensation Game Model based on the willingness distribution function |
|
MU Guiling1, ZANG Keqing2
|
|
1.The Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute of Pearl River Water Resources Commission;2.Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower
|
| Abstract: |
| Based on the analysis of the existing ecological compensation standard calculation methods and the Game Model, investigating and analyzing the willingness of the receiving area and the water source area, the ecological compensation Game Model is put forward. And the result is compared with the result of the Original Game Model. The ecological compensation Game Model generalizes the willingness density function into an exponential distribution through the research results, and considers both the probability of water source area to accept an offer (or charge) and the probability of water receiving area to bid (or accept a price).It is more realistically reflected the essence of both the receiving area and the water source area to pursue the maximization of their own interests. The higher the bid, the more likely the bid will be accepted. Under the condition that the actual willingness to be compensated of the water source area is known, the water receiving area will raise its bid on the premise of guaranteeing its own interests to reach an agreement as soon as possible. Compared with the result of the Original Game Model, the ecological compensation Game Model overcomes the shortcoming of the Original Game Model which assumes that the Willingness to Accept of the water source region is uniformly distributed, and does not reflect the actual situation. This leads to the result of the ecological compensation Game Model is no longer close to the mean value. At the same time, the distribution of water receiving region"s Willingness to Pay is taken into account. The Improved Game Model combines the theoretical basis with the actual investigation, so the result is more reliable. |
| Key words: the willingness distribution function; the Game Model; eco-compensation standard |
