| 摘要: |
| 【目的】为保障粮食安全并同时兼顾经济效益、社会效益和生态效益,河北省种植业结构调整势在必行。【方法】基于此本文通过构建种植业结构调整多目标优化模型,分析河北省种植业结构优化问题。首先利用联合国粮农组织( FAO) 推荐的彭曼公式和CropWat8.0软件计算作物的蓝绿水足迹,其次利用熵值法求解经济效益、节水效益和社会效益三个目标所占的权重；在此基础上根据权重将多目标模型转换为单目标模型,利用lingo软件进行求解得优化结果。【结果】结论：第一,小麦、玉米和油料作物的种植面积分别减少3.7%、3.9%和0.33%,薯类和蔬菜的种植面积增加8.49%和2.94%；第二,作物的总经济效益增加了447亿元,占2015年经济收益的14.1%,作物的产量增加了0.18亿吨,占2015年作物产量的14.5%,作物蓝绿水需水量量增加11亿立方米,占2015年作物需水量的3%。【结论】通过进行种植业结构调整可以提高河北省种植业的经济效益、节水效益和社会效益。 |
| 关键词: 蓝绿水；十三五规划；种植结构调整；多目标优化；河北 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S274 |
| 基金项目:河北省社科规划基金 |
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| Study on the planting structure adjustment based on multi-objective linear programming in Hebei province |
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Li Mengchen1, Hong Chuanchun2
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1.Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao,Qinhuangdao;2.Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】In order to ensure food security and guarantee economic, social and ecological benefits at the same time, adjusting the planting structure of Hebei province is imperative. 【Method】Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the optimization of planting structure in Hebei province by building a multi-objective optimization model of planting structure adjustment. Firstly, Penman formula recommended by FAO and CropWat8.0 software are used to calculate the blue-green water footprint of crops. Secondly, entropy method is used to calculate the weight factor of economic benefit, water-saving benefit and social benefit. On this basis, the multi-objective model is converted into a single-objective model according to the weight factor, and the optimization results are obtained by using lingo software.【Result Here are the two conclusions: firstly, the planting area of wheat, corn and oil crops decreased by 3.7%, 3.9% and 0.33% respectively, and the planting area of potato and vegetable increased by 8.49% and 2.94% respectively. Second, the total economic benefit of crops increased by 44.7 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the economic benefit in 2015. The crop yield increased by 18 million tons, accounting for 14.5% of the crop yield in 2015. 【Conclusion】The economic, water-saving and social benefits of planting industry in hebei province can be improved by adjusting planting industry structure. |
| Key words: blue-green water; The 13th five-year plan; Planting structure adjustment ;Multi-objective optimization ;Hebei |
