| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究夏季降水时空分布变化特点、分配特征及变化规律，对于安徽省夏季降水的变化趋势及发展动态预测具有重要意义。【方法】利用安徽省16个气象站1959-2017年逐月降水资料，采用气候倾向率法、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法并基于Arcgis10.2软件克里金插值法，开展对安徽省近60年夏季降水的时空分布特征及影响因素分析研究。【结果】（1）研究区年均夏季降水540.1 mm，占年均降水总量45.9%，夏季降水量变幅为275.7-1137.0mm；近60年来，研究区年均降水量和夏季降水量总体上都呈现增加趋势，其中夏季降水量变化率为23.01mm/10a，略高于年均降水变化速率（21.31mm/10a）；（2）夏季降水同样为年降水极值的重要构成，同时在1975存在显著突变点，20世纪70年代末到20世纪90年代中期突变情况复杂多变，存在多个突变年份，突变年份在厄尔尼诺年左右。（3）安徽省夏季降水与年降水在空间分布上都呈现出南多北少的趋势；年降水量呈现2370-753.2mm的降水梯度，夏季降水出现1045-426.4mm的降水梯度。【结论】安徽省夏季降水变化特点表现为集中性和突变性；降水呈现增多趋势是全球气候变暖背景下复杂的水热响应关系以及以厄尔尼诺现象为代表的异常气候事件共同作用的结果；安徽省区域气候过渡性和复杂下垫面地形条件造成了区域降水显著分异。 |
| 关键词: 安徽省；夏季降水；突变分析；时空分布；影响因素 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P467 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Study on the Summer Precipitation Spatial-Temporal Variation and Influencing Factors in Anhui Province in Recent 60 Years |
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SUN Peng
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Suzhou University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】It is of great significance to study the variation trend and dynamic prediction of summer precipitation in Anhui Province.【Method】Based on the monthly precipitation date of 1959-2017 from 16 meteorological station in Anhui province, applying climate tendency rate, moving averaging method,Mann-Kendall method and Kriging interpolation method which is replied on Arcgis10.2, the article explored the spatial-temporal variation distribution characteristics and influencing factors of summer precipitation in Anhui Province in recent 60 years.【Results】(1)The average annual summer precipitation in the study area is 540.1mm, accounting for 45.9% of the total annual precipitation;and the summer precipitation variation range from 275.7mm to 1137.0mm; In the past 60 years, the average annual precipitation and summer average precipitation in Anhui Province generally show an increasing trend,the change rate of summer precipitation is 23.01mm/10a, which is slightly higher than the annual average precipitation change rate (21.31mm/10a). (2)Summer precipitation is also an important component of the extreme value of annual precipitation, and the summer precipitation in Anhui Province reached the maximum in the 1991, and the summer precipitation reached the minimum in the 1978. At the same time, there was a significant mutation point in 1975. From the end of 1970s to the middle of 1990s, the mutation situation was complex and changeable, and there were several abrupt years.The years of the mutation points are around El Nino years.(3)The spatial distribution of summer precipitation and the annual precipitation in Anhui Province show a trend that the precipitation is more in the south and less in the north . The gradient of annual precipitation is from 2370mm to 753.2mm.The gradient of summer precipitation is from 1045-426.4mm..【Conclusions】The variation characteristics of summer precipitation in Anhui Province are concentrated and abrupt; The increasing trend of precipitation is the result of the complex hydrothermal response under the background of global warming and the interaction of abnormal climate events represented by El Nino phenomenon. The significant differentiation of regional precipitation is resulted of regional climate transition and complex underlying surface topographic conditions in Anhui Province. |
| Key words: Anhui province; summer precipitation; mutation analysis; spatial-temporal distribution; influencing factors |
