| 引用本文: | 赵丹玥,杨志鹏,徐灿,等.近30年石羊河流域太阳辐射及气温变化对春玉米产量的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| Zhao Danyue,Yang Zhipeng,Xu Can,et al.近30年石羊河流域太阳辐射及气温变化对春玉米产量的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 近30年石羊河流域太阳辐射及气温变化对春玉米产量的影响 |
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赵丹玥, 杨志鹏, 徐灿, 张紫淇, 刘耿, 周始威, 胡笑涛
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西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院
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| 摘要: |
| 为更好地应对气候变化对西北春玉米生产的影响,本研究分析了石羊河流域1987-2016年间春玉米生育期内(5月–9月)平均日太阳辐射、日最低气温、日最高气温及日均气温的年际变化趋势；且通过全局组合方法,基于30年历史气象资料,将每年生育期内的气象因子分为日平均气温(Ti)、日太阳辐射(Si)及其余气象因子(Xi)三个独立的时间序列,第i年气象资料可看作集合[Ti, Si, Xi],然后分别对集合[Ti, (X, S)i]及[Si, (X, T)i]中的因子进行年际组合,进而生成1800个气候情景,借助RZWQM2模型对各情景下的作物潜在产量进行模拟。结果表明,生育期内平均日最高、最低及平均气温,均呈显著上升趋势,每年约增加0.04℃、0.14℃、0.09℃,而生育期内日太阳辐射在14.6–17.4 MJ/( m2.d) 间波动,变化趋势不明显。气温是影响玉米产量的主导因子,气温的持续性升高已造成潜在产量的降低,其中,日最高气温对潜在产量的影响最为显著。30年间该地区春玉米潜在产量在7261–11248 kg/ha间波动变化,随时间先增加后减小,最大值出现在2002年左右。 |
| 关键词: RZWQM2模型; 春玉米; 太阳辐射; 气温; 潜在产量#$NL中图分类号: S513 文献标识码: |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S513 |
| 基金项目:国家级大学生创新性实验项目(201810712081) |
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| Contributions of individual variation in solar radiation and temperature to potential yield of spring maize in Shiyang River Basin, 1987—2016 |
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Zhao Danyue, Yang Zhipeng, Xu Can, Zhang Ziqi, Liu Geng, Zhou Shiwei, Hu Xiaotao
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College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A F University,Yangling,712100
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| Abstract: |
| In order to better cope with the impact of climate change on spring maize production in northwest China, this study analyzed the trends of daily solar radiation, daily minimum air temperature, daily maximum air temperature and daily average air temperature during the growing period of spring maize (May- September) in Shiyang River Basin from 1987 to 2016. The meteorological factors during the growing season in each year can be divided into three independent time series, ie. daily average air temperature (Ti), daily solar radiation factor (Si) and meteorological factors (Xi), and the meteorological data can be regarded as the set [Ti, Si, Xi]. Then, interannual combinations of factors in sets [Ti, (X, S)i] and [Si, (X, T)i] were carried out to generate 1800 climate scenarios, respectively. The potential crop yield in each scenario was simulated with the help of RZWQM2 model. Results show that the daily maximum air temperature (TH), daily minimum air temperature (TL) and daily average air temperature (TM) during growing season all showed a significant upward trend. Annual increase was about 0.04℃ for TH, 0.14℃ for TL and 0.09℃ for TM. However, the daily solar radiation fluctuated between 14.6 and 17.4 MJ/(m2.d) with small range. Temperature is the leading factor affecting maize yield. The continuous increase of temperature has led to the decrease of potential yield. The daily maximum air temperature has the most significant effect on potential yield. During the 30 years, the potential yield of spring maize in this region fluctuated between 7261 and 11248 kg/ha, which first increased and then decreased with time with the maximum value around 2002. |
| Key words: RZWQM2; Spring maize; Solar radiation; Air temperature; Potential yield |
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