| 引用本文: | 岳永杰,乌云珠拉,李旭,等.根河流域近40年来气候和径流的变化特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2020,(5):-. |
| yueyongjie,wuyunzhula,lixu,et al.根河流域近40年来气候和径流的变化特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2020,(5):-. |
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| 根河流域近40年来气候和径流的变化特征分析 |
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岳永杰,乌云珠拉,李旭,等
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内蒙古农业大学林学院
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| 摘要: |
| 根河流域处于我国寒温带地区,气候和自然环境较为特殊,分布着大面积冻土,对于气候变化非常敏感。【目的】通过分析根河流域气象和水文的变化,探讨气候和水文之间的相互关系,为该流域的水资源科学管理提供理论依据。【方法】本文以额尔古纳水系根河流域为研究对象,利用M-K检验和Hurst指数等方法,分析根河流域近40年的气象水文变化趋势及相互作用关系。【结果】(1)根河流域年平均气温在1980-2017年间,共上升了1.1℃,在α=0.01的水平上趋于上升趋势,且上升趋势有较强的持续性(H=0.75)。其中,生长季的气温变化最为强烈(Z=4.63)。(2)根河流域生长季降水量占年降水量的85%,根河流域生长季降水量趋于下降趋势,下降幅度为1.68mm/a。(3)根河流域始冻期和完全冻结期的空气相对湿度在α=0.001和α=0.01的水平上显著下降,且下降趋势有很强的持续性(H=1.0),变化幅度为0.05%/a。(4)根河流域径流量趋于下降趋势,在1997年和1999年发生突变,与年降水量发生突变的时间基本吻合,且降雨与径流的变化趋势一致,经相关性分析表明,降雨与径流的相关系数为0.91。(5)根河流域径流量与年均气温相关系数为0.50,气温主要以增加流域各因子的蒸散发、以及土壤和河流冻结、融化的时间或面积来影响流域径流量。 |
| 关键词: 根河流域;MK检验;气候变化;趋势分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P42 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| Analysis of climatic and hydrological changes in the GEN he river basin over the past 40 years |
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yueyongjie1, wuyunzhula1, lixu1, wangyaqian2, yilixi2
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1.Inner Mongolia Agricultural University;2.College of forestry, Inner Mongolia agricultural university
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| Abstract: |
| The genhe river basin is located in the cold temperate zone of China. The climate and natural environment are quite special, with a large area of permafrost, which is very sensitive to climate change.[objective] to explore the relationship between climate and hydrology by analyzing the changes of meteorology and hydrology in the gen river basin, and to provide theoretical basis for the scientific management of water resources in the basin.[methods] this paper took the gen river basin of erguna system as the research object, and used m-k test and Hurst index to analyze the meteorological and hydrological change trend and interaction relationship of the gen river basin in recent 40 years.[results] (1) the annual average temperature in the gen river basin increased by 1.1℃ during the period from 1980 to 2017, and tended to increase at the level of alpha =0.01, with a strong continuous upward trend (H=0.75).Among them, the temperature change in the growing season was the most intense (Z=4.63).(2) the growing season precipitation in the geen river basin accounts for 85% of the annual precipitation, and the growing season precipitation in the geen river basin tends to decline, with a decline rate of 1.68mm/a.
(3) relative humidity of air in the gen river basin during the initial freezing period and the complete freezing period decreased significantly at the levels of a =0.001 and a =0.01, and the decline trend was very persistent (H=1.0), with a change range of 0.05%/a.
(4) the runoff in the genhe river basin tends to decline, and the abrupt change occurs in 1997 and 1999, which is basically consistent with the abrupt change of annual precipitation, and the change trend of rainfall and runoff is consistent. The correlation analysis shows that the correlation coefficient of rainfall and runoff is 0.91.
(5) the correlation coefficient between runoff and average annual temperature in the gan river basin is 0.50. Temperature mainly influences runoff by increasing evapotranspiration of various factors in the basin, as well as the freezing and melting time or area of soil and river. |
| Key words: GEN he river basin;Mann-Kendall trend;climate change;trend analysis |
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