| 引用本文: | 王蒙,刘春伟,邱让建,等.江苏省参考作物蒸散量的时空变化及影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| wangmeng,liuchunwei,qiurangjian,et al.江苏省参考作物蒸散量的时空变化及影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 江苏省参考作物蒸散量的时空变化及影响因素分析 |
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王蒙1, 刘春伟2, 邱让建2, 张佩3, 张方敏2
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1.南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室;2.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;3.江苏省气象局
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| 摘要: |
| 本研究利用1961-2018年江苏省60个站点的风速、温度、相对湿度和日照时数等逐日数据计算了逐日蒸散量(Evapotranspiration,ET0),并采用气候倾向率、敏感性分析、克里金空间插值、贡献率分析等方法对江苏省ET0的时空变化及影响因素进行分析。结果表明：(1)江苏省1961-2018年平均ET0为976.8mm,区域整体ET0的变化幅度为-0.439mm/(10a),共有28个站点ET0呈增加趋势(47%),主要分布在无锡以及苏州等苏南区域,共有11个站点ET0增加趋势显著(p<0.05),其中无锡、太仓、靖江地区ET0气候倾向率较大,分别为18.58mm/10a、18.97mm/10a、29.65mm/10a。共有32个站点ET0呈减小趋势(53%),主要分布在连云港、徐州、宿迁等苏北地区,共有16个站点ET0减小趋势显著(p<0.05),其中新沂、泗洪、灌南地区ET0减小趋势较大,分别为-19.22mm/10a、-23.07mm/10a、-23.15mm/10a；(2)丰县(1007.4mm)、徐州(1041.1mm)以及西连岛(1130.3mm)区域为ET0的高值中心；(3) ET0对平均温度、日照时数、风速为正敏感,对相对湿度为负敏感,且ET0对相对湿度最敏感。平均温度、日照时数、风速、相对湿度与ET0相关系数分别为0.396(p<0.01)、0.580(p<0.01)、0.165、-0.516(p<0.01)。敏感系数空间分布上,ST与SWS纬向分布特征都较明显；(4)贡献率分析表明,主要影响因素为风速的有22个站点,均分布在苏北地区,其中沛县、泗阳、新沂站风速对ET0变化贡献较大,分别为-13.44%、-12.52%、-12.49%,主要影响因素为相对湿度的有38个站点,主要分布在苏南地区,其中丹阳、靖江、昆山站相对湿度对ET0变化贡献较大,分别为18.47%、18.57%、20.87%,全区平均温度和日照时数不对ET0变化产生主要影响。江苏地区ET0变化的主要影响因素是风速和相对湿度。 |
| 关键词: 参考作物蒸散量;敏感性分析;贡献率;江苏省 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(51309132,51509130) |
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| Temporal and Spatial Variations of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration and Its Influencing Factors in Jiangsu Province |
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wangmeng,liuchunwei,qiurangjian,et al
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1.School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Engineering;2.Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract: This study calculated the daily evapotranspiration(ET0) by using the data of wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours from 1961 to 2018 of 60 locations in Jiangsu province. And using methods of climate trend rate, sensitivity analysis, Kriging space interpolation and contribution rate analysis, the present paper analyzed the temporal and spatial variation and the influencing factors of ET0 in Jiangsu. The results indicated that (1)the mean ETo was 976.8mm and the change of the whole area ET0 was -0.439mm/(10a) from 1961 to 2018 in Jiangsu province. 28 of the locations(47%), mainly located in Wuxi and Suzhou, showed an increasing trend in ET0. There was a significant increase in ET0 in 11 sites, among which the climate tendency rates in Wuxi, Taicang and JingJiang area were 18.58mm/10a、18.97mm/10a、29.65mm/10a, respectively. 32 of them(53%), mainly distributed in Lianyungang, Xuzhou,Suqian, presented a decreasing trend in ET0. The trend was significant(p<0.05) in 16 sites. As characteristic areas, Xinyi, Sihong and Guannan decreased by -19.22mm/10a、-23.07mm/10a、-23.15mm/10a, respectively. (3) ET0 is sensitive to average temperature, sunshine hours,wind speed and relative humidity. The correlation coefficients between average temperature, sunshine hours, wind speed and ET0 were 0.396(p<0.01）、0.580(p<0.01)、0.165, respectively. And ET0 is the most sensitive to relative humidity with a negative correlation coefficient of -0.516(p<0.01). The zonal distribution characteristics of ST and SWS are obvious in the spatial distribution of sensitivity coefficient.(4)The analysis of contribution rate indicated that wind speed and relative humidity had a great contribution to the change of ET0. 22 locations, evenly distributed in the north Jiangsu province, were mainly influenced by wind speed. Among them, the wind speed of Peixian, Siyang and Xinyi contributed greatly to the change of ET0 with values of -13.44%、-12.52%、-12.49%, respectively. And 38 sites, mainly located in the south areas, were mainly influenced by the relative humidity. As characteristic areas, Danyang, Jingjiang and Kunshan contributed greatly with values of 18.47%、18.57%、20.87%, respectively. In addition, the average temperature and sunshine hours in the whole region have no main effect on the change of ET0. |
| Key words: Key words: Reference crop evapotranspiration; sensitivity analysis; contribution rate analysis; Jiangsu Province |
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