| 引用本文: | 李虹彬,刘亚婷,王卫光,等.气候要素对阿克苏河径流变化影响的定量评估[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| LI Hongbin,Liu Yating,Wang Weiguang,et al.气候要素对阿克苏河径流变化影响的定量评估[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
|
| 摘要: |
| 【目的】为了探究阿克苏河径流变化的归因。【方法】采用Mann-Kendall-Sneyers检验估计流域水文、气象数据的变化趋势和突变情况，并试图用三种改进的弹性系数法评估气候要素（尤其是温度）对阿克苏河径流变化的影响。【结果】径流和温度分别以11.73(m3/s)/10a和0.26℃/10a的速率显著递增 (P<0.01)。降雨也呈显著上升趋势，增幅为14.31mm/10a的速率递增(P<0.05)，而潜在蒸散发呈显著下降趋势（21.89mm/10a，P<0.01）径流的突变点1993年。因此，采用1960-1993年的多年平均径流和气候因素作为衡量变化的基准值。自1994-2010年，径流量相对1960-1993年增加了23.1 %。敏感性分析结果表明，温度升高对径流变化的相对贡献率为46.7 %，是径流量增加的最主要因素，而降水量和潜在蒸散发的作用分别占径流量变化的20.5%和24.9 %。其他非气候要素（主要是人类活动）对径流变化的相对贡献率约为7.9%，【结论】气候变化是阿克苏河径流量变化的主要原因。 |
| 关键词: 径流变化；Mann-Kendall-Sneyers检验；弹性系数；气候变化 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P333.1 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(51979071)国家级大学生创新训练项目（202010294001） |
|
| Quantitative assessment the impact of climate factors on streamflow changes |
|
LI Hongbin1, Liu Yating2, Wang Weiguang3, Pang Maitian4
|
|
1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University;2.Hohai University College of Hydrology and Water resource;3.Hohai University College of Hydrology and Water Resources;4.Hohai University
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate change has had on streamflow change, however, the current research mostly explores the influence of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) on streamflow change, and the relative influence of temperature on the streamflow change is still less studied.【Objective】 To explore the attribution of the Aksu River streamflow change. 【Method】Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test and Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test were used to estimate the changing trend and abrupt change of hydrological and meteorological data in the basin, and three improved elastic coefficient methods were used to evaluate the influence of climate factors (especially temperature) on streamflow change of the Aksu River. 【Result】The results show that streamflow and temperature increased significantly at the rates of 11.73 (m3/s)/10a and 0.26℃/10a respectively (P<0.01). Precipitation also exhibits an upward trend, increasing at a rate of 14.31mm/10a (P<0.05), while potential evapotranspiration shows a significant downward trend (21.89mm/10a, P<0.01). The test results show that the abrupt changes of temperature (1993), precipitation (1991) and potential evapotranspiration occurred in the early 1990s, the abrupt change point of streamflow occurs in the year 1993, which also indicates that the streamflow has changed significantly due to the influence of climate factors after 1994. Therefore, the multi-year average streamflow and climate factors from 1960 to 1993 are employed as the baseline values to measure changes. From 1994 to 2010, streamflow, precipitation, and temperature increasing by 23.1%, 22.5%, 32.4% compared with 1960 to 1993 respectively, while the potential evapotranspiration declining7.6%. The linear regression relationship between temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and streamflow of Aksu River has passed the statistical test with a significance level of 1%. The results show that the linear regression coefficient can well reflect the relationship between runoff and climate factors, and it is effective to deduce the climate elasticity with the linear regression equation. The sensitivity analysis result showed that the elasticity of streamflow to temperature (εT) and precipitation (εP) is 1.138 and 0.2708 respectively, which means that every 1% increase in temperature and precipitation will lead to 1.138% and 0.2708% increase in streamflow. The elasticity coefficient of streamflow to potential evapotranspiration is -1.003(εPET), indicating that a decrease of 1% in potential evapotranspiration will lead to an increase of 1.003% in streamflow. The Aksu River streamflow is the most sensitive to temperature changes, followed by potential evapotranspiration, and the least sensitive to precipitation changes. The results show that the relative contribution rate of temperature rise to streamflow change is 46.7%, which is the most important factor for streamflow increase, while the effects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration account for 20.5% and 24.9% of streamflow change respectively. Showed that the streamflow of increasing percentage only accounted for 7.9% owing to the non-climate (mainly human activities), the relative contribution rate of other non-climatic factors (mainly human activities) to streamflow change is about 7.9%.【Conclusion】 Indicating that climate change is the main cause of streamflow change in the Aksu River. However, with the continuous intensification of human activities in the upper and lower reaches of the basin, human activities will have an increasingly important impact on streamflow changes. |
| Key words: streamflow alteration; Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test; elastic coefficient; climate change |
