Zhang Huiru,XU Hang,SONG Jian-feng.西北地区农业灌溉用水反弹的影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-.
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【目的】研究农业灌溉用水反弹的影响因素,优化水资源管理,促进区域农业可持续发展。【方法】通过构建灌溉用水量与其他要素(包括水资源以外的生产资料,农业生产技术和农业劳动力投入)之间的非替代性的农业生产函数,推导农业灌溉用水反弹的影响因素,以西北五省为例,利用基准模型和二元选择模型验证农业灌溉用水反弹的影响因素。【结果】①通过理论模型推导发现,农作物产量和水分生产率是影响农业灌溉用水反弹的2个因素,且农作物产量的增加对农业灌溉用水反弹有正向效应,灌溉水分生产率对农业灌溉用水反弹有反向的影响;②西北五省的所有市域中,约65%存在农业灌溉用水反弹,即西北地区普遍存在着农业灌溉用水反弹;③在基准模型中,农作物产量的增加量每增加1%,农业灌溉用水反弹会增加0.094 3%~0.611 3%;其他条件不变的条件下,水分生产率每增加1%,农业灌溉用水反弹会减少0.927 3%~0.990 1%。二元选择模型的结果影响方向与基准模型一致。【结论】农业生产要素变化所引起的农作物产量增加导致了对水资源的新增需求,部分抵消了节水技术能实现的预期节水量。
关键词:  农业灌溉;用水反弹;节水政策;西北五省
Analysis on the influencing factors of agricultural irrigation water rebound in northwest China
Zhang Huiru1, XU Hang2, SONG Jian-feng2
1.chool of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University;2.School of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University
【Background】China is a large agricultural country and the agricultural sector is still the largest water use sector. Water conservation in the agricultural sector has become an important way to alleviate China's water poverty problem. And water saving is one of the key factors that determine the sustainable development of agriculture in arid areas. However, the improvement and universal implementation of agricultural water saving technology may lead to the phenomenon that the actual water saving may not reach the expected water saving, i.e., the "agricultural irrigation water rebound". That is, water-saving irrigation policies failed to achieve the expected water-saving goals. 【Objective】The study explores the factors affecting the rebound of agricultural irrigation water, which will contribute to water conservation and optimization of water resources management, and maintain the sustainable use of water resources. At the same time, this is of great significance for the implementation of water-saving policies and the realization of regional agricultural sustainable development. 【Method】Based on this, the paper constructs a non-substitutional agricultural production function of irrigation water use and other factors (including not only the means of production other than water resources, but also agricultural production technology and agricultural labor input), focusing on the influencing factors of agricultural irrigation water rebound through theoretical derivation. And then this paper builds benchmark models (pooled regression model, fixed effects model and random effects model) and binary choice models (Logit models and Probit models), using the city-level panel data of five northwestern provinces, to verify the influencing factors of agricultural irrigation water rebound. 【Result】First, the paper found crop yield and irrigation water productivity are two factors affecting agricultural irrigation water rebound through theoretical model derivation. And the increase in crop yield has a positive effect on the rebound of agricultural irrigation water, and irrigation water productivity has a reverse effect on the rebound of agricultural irrigation water. Second, about 65% of the cities in Northwest China have agricultural irrigation water rebound, which means there is a general rebound of agricultural irrigation water in the Northwest China. Third, in the benchmark model, the agricultural irrigation water rebound will increase by 0.094 3% - 0.611 3% for every 1% increase of crop yield; under the same other conditions, the rebound of agricultural irrigation water will decrease by 0.927 3% - 0.990 1% when irrigation water productivity increases by 1%. The influence direction of binary choice model is consistent with that of benchmark model, indicating that the results of the study are robust. 【Conclusion】The agricultural irrigation water rebound is that the increase in crop yields caused by changes in agricultural production factors has led to an increase in demand for water resources, which partially offset the expected water savings that can be achieved by water-saving technologies. Water-saving policies should adhere to the popularization of water-saving technologies to improve irrigation water productivity, but also pay attention to the new water demand and scientifically guide agricultural production behavior. First of all, farmers' water use behavior needs to be guided. In addition, attention should be paid to the increase in agricultural water consumption caused by the expansion of irrigation area.
Key words:  Agricultural irrigation; water rebound; water-saving policies; Northwest China