| 引用本文: | 郭嘉兵,李金文,马金珠,等.甘肃省1961―2018年降水量时空分布与变化研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| GUO Jiabing,LI Jinwen,MA Jinzhu,et al.甘肃省1961―2018年降水量时空分布与变化研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 甘肃省1961―2018年降水量时空分布与变化研究 |
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郭嘉兵,李金文,马金珠,等
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1.兰州大学 资源环境学院;2.兰州大学 土木工程与力学学院;3.兰州大学
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究甘肃省降水量时空分布与变化，获得在暖湿趋势下甘肃省降水量变化特征。【方法】选取甘肃省1961―2018年59个气象站降水量为基础数据，采用PCI指数、小波分析、M-K检验等方法对甘肃省降水时空分布特征、降水周期、突变年份及趋势变化进行分析。【结果】甘肃省年降水量在空间上自东向西呈现逐渐减少的规律，降水量年内分配不均匀程度逐渐增加；在时间上，甘肃省存在28、22、12、5 a降水变化周期，其中以28 a周期震荡最强；降水量突变主要发生在20世纪60年代中期、70年代初期、80年代中期以及90年代初期。甘肃省西部地区的降水量整体呈增加趋势，增加率为0.45 mm/a，中部、南部、东部地区呈下降趋势，下降率分别为-0.82 mm/a、-0.81 mm/a、-0.93 mm/a。【结论】甘肃省近60 a降水量的长时间尺度周期显著，突变年份与极端降水及干旱事件相对应，西部与中东部地区降水量变化趋势存在较大差异，20世纪90年代后，甘肃省降水量显著增加。 |
| 关键词: 甘肃省;降水量;时空分布;趋势分析; |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P426 |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（lzujbky-2020-kb54） |
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| Research on Spatio-temporal Distribution and Variation of Precipitation in Gansu Province from 1961 to 2018 |
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GUO Jiabing1,2,3, LI Jinwen4, MA Jinzhu1, Yu Qiao4
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1.Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environment Systems of the Minitry of Education,College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University;2.China College of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Lanzhou University;3.China;4.Lanzhou University
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| Abstract: |
| [Background] The temporal and spatial changes of precipitation can reflect changes in regional climate and ecological environment, and are of great significance to human life and production. In recent years, the abnormal climate has caused changes in precipitation in my country, which has attracted widespread attention. Gansu Province is located in the west of central my country and has diverse climate types. It is not only the geographic center of my country’s mainland, but also the intersection of the three major climatic zones of the northwest arid region, the eastern monsoon region, and the alpine climate region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Furthermore, Gansu Province is sensitive to climate change and ecologically The environment is fragile. [Objective] Therefore, to study the temporal and spatial distribution and changes of precipitation in Gansu Province, Obtain the precipitation characteristics of Gansu Province under the change of warm and humid trend, the precipitation of 59 meteorological stations in Gansu Province from 1961 to 2018 was selected as the basic data. [Method] Using PCI index, wavelet analysis, MK test and other methods to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in Gansu Province, precipitation cycle, mutation year and trend change. At the same time, the sliding t test is used to verify and proofread the mutation year. [Results] The results showed that the annual precipitation in Gansu Province showed a gradual decrease in space from the east to the west, and the uneven distribution of precipitation during the year gradually increased; in terms of time, there were 28 years, 22 years, 12 years, and 12 years in Gansu Province. The 5-year precipitation change cycle, of which the 28-year cycle oscillates the most; precipitation abrupt changes mainly occurred in the mid-1960s, early 1970s, mid-1980s and early 1990s. The result of sliding t test is more extensive and comprehensive than that of M-K mutation, and it is representative. The precipitation in the western part of Gansu Province showed an overall increasing trend with an increase rate of 0.45 mm/a, while the central, southern, and eastern regions showed a downward trend, with the decreasing rates being -0.82 mm/a, -0.81 mm/a, and -0.93 mm/a, respectively. Before the 1990s, precipitation in the central, southern, and eastern regions showed a downward trend. The southern and eastern regions reached their lowest values in the 1990s, except for the western regions. After the 1990s, precipitation in all regions showed an upward trend, among which the eastern region had the most obvious upward trend, with an upward rate of 3.74mm/a. [Conclusion] The long-time scale cycle of precipitation in Gansu Province in the past 60 years is significant. The sudden change years correspond to extreme precipitation and drought events. There is a big difference in precipitation trends in the western and central-eastern regions. After the 1990s, precipitation increased significantly and the climate of Gansu Province showed a trend of humidification. The research is of great significance to the local ecological environment and disaster climate, and provides scientific basis for future research in regional meteorology, ecology and hydrology. |
| Key words: Gansu Province; precipitation; temporal and spatial distribution; trend analysis |
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