| 引用本文: | 黄星,陈伏龙,赵琪,等.新疆和田河径流演变特征及其影响因素分析 [J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| Huang Xing,Chen Fulong,Zhao Qi,et al.新疆和田河径流演变特征及其影响因素分析 [J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究和田河径流演变特征及其影响因素，对预测区域未来径流变化趋势及水资源可持续利用有重要意义。【方法】采用 M-K检验、Pettitt突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法，分析径流及影响因素的趋势变化、突变特征、周期规律。在确定影响因素与径流的相关性基础上，建立了影响因素与径流的多元线性方程及神经网络模型，定量分析气候因素与人类活动对径流变化的贡献水平。【结果】玉龙喀什河径流表现出增加趋势，喀拉喀什河径流呈减少趋势，突变年分别出现在2009年、2004年，在40-55a尺度下的玉龙喀什河与33-55a尺度下的喀拉喀什河都经历2个枯-丰变换周期。玉龙喀什河、喀拉喀什河降水量都呈现出显著增加趋势，突变年份均为2001年，两河降水同时展现出3次偏多-偏少交替。年均气温呈显著性增加，在1984年发生突变，气温经过2个冷-暖变换周期。玉龙喀什河与喀拉喀什河径流变化的主要影响因素为气候变化，人类活动影响较小，气候变化对径流的贡献率分别为84.06%，72.51%，而人类活动的贡献率为15.93%，27.49%。【结论】玉龙喀什河和喀拉喀什河在40a-55a、33-55a尺度下由丰水期转为枯水期，玉龙喀什河和喀拉喀什河流域降水未来为少水期，和田河流域气温在40-50a尺度下处于偏暖阶段。喀拉喀什河突变点与水利枢纽工程的修建有关，降水和气温发生突变时间于西北地区气候转变相一致。气温因素是径流补给的主要影响成分，气候变化为径流变化的主要因素。 |
| 关键词: 径流;影响因素;贡献率;周期性;和田河 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P333 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| Analysis on the Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Runoff Evolution of Hotan River in Xinjiang |
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Huang Xing1, Chen Fulong1, Zhao Qi2, He Chaofei1, Long Aihua3
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1.College of Water Conservancy Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University;2.Hydrology Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region;3.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract:【Background】In the context of global warming and increasing human activities, the Hotan river runoff had changed.【Objective】The objective is analyzing the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of Hotan River runoff, and predicting the future trend of regional runoff changes and quantitative analysis of the contribution of human activities and environmental changes to runoff.【Method】M-K test, Pettitt mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis and other methods were used to analyze the trend changes, mutation characteristics and periodicity of runoff and influencing factors. The correlation test method is used to determine the correlation between influencing factors and runoff, and establish multiple linear equations and neural network models of influencing factors and runoff to quantitatively analyze the level of contribution of climate factors and human activities to runoff changes.【Result】(1)The Yulong Kashi River showed an increasing trend, but the trend of the runoff of the Kara Kashi River was not obvious. The abrupt years occurred in 2009 and 2004, respectively. The Yulong Kashi River at the 40-55a scale and the 33-55a scale The Kara Kashi River underneath has experienced two cycles of dry-to-rich transition. The precipitation in the Yulong Kashi River and Kara Kashi River both showed a significant growth trend. The abrupt year of the abrupt change was 2001, and the precipitation in the two rivers simultaneously exhibited 3 times of over-to-less alternation. The average annual temperature has increased significantly, and a sudden change occurred in 1984. The temperature has two cycles of cold-warm transition, and it is in a warmer stage at the 40-50a scale. (2)The main influencing factors of the runoff changes of the Yulong Kashi River and Kara Kashi River are climate change, and human activities have little impact. The contribution rate of climate change to runoff is 84.06% and 72.51%, and the contribution rate of human activities is 15.93% and 27.49%.【Conclusion】The Yulong Kashi River and Kara Kashi River turn from rich water period to poor water period at the scale of 40a-55a and 33-55a. Rainfall in Yulong Kashi River and Kara Kashi River Basin will be a less water period in the future. The temperature in the Hotan River Basin is at a relatively warm stage at the 40-50a scale. The abrupt point of the Kara kashi River is related to the construction of the water conservancy project. The sudden change of precipitation and temperature coincides with the climate change in the northwest. Temperature factor is the main influence component of runoff recharge, and climate change is the main factor of runoff change. |
| Key words: Runoff; Influence Factors; Contribution Rate; Periodic; HoTan River |
