| 引用本文: | 郁耀闯,徐秋月,王长燕,等.明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害的多尺度变化特征[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| YU Yaochuang,XUE Qiuyue,WANG Changyan,et al.明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害的多尺度变化特征[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】为揭示明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害的发生机制提供参考依据。【方法】利用《中国三千年气象记录总集》等历史文献资料，采用集合经验模态分解（EEMD）等方法研究了明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害的多尺度变化特征。【结果】明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害总体上表现为先增加后降低再趋于稳定的变化趋势，并在时间尺度上存在着显著的2-5a的年际和准10a、准18a、准27a、准52a、准84a的年代际，以及100a尺度的世纪周期，分别与厄尔尼诺的2-5a周期、太阳活动的准10 a、准50 a和世纪周期以及太平洋年代际振荡的20-30a变化周期相对应；交叉小波功率谱和交叉小波凝聚谱分析表明，渭南地区的旱涝灾害与太阳活动、厄尔尼诺和太平洋年代际震荡之间具有较好的共振周期。【结论】明清时期渭南地区旱涝灾害具有显著的多尺度变化特征，该变化特征可能与太阳活动、厄尔尼诺和太平洋年代际振荡存在着密切关系。 |
| 关键词: 渭南地区; 明清时期; 旱涝灾害;气候变化; 年际-百年际尺度 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P954 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(41771048)；陕西省教育厅重点实验室项目(18JS005)；陕西省社会科学界联合会项目(2019Z007,2020Z050)； 陕西省社科项目(2019E007)；宝鸡市科技局项目(2018JH-13)；陕西省2019年大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S201910721033) |
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| Multi-scale features of drought and flood disasters in Weinan region during the Ming and Qing dynasties |
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YU Yaochuang, XUE Qiuyue, WANG Changyan, GONG Lanlan, HOU Ying
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College of Geography and Environment,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Drought and flood disasters are two kinds of frequent occurrence of major natural disasters in the world. Within the context of global warming, drought and flood disasters affected by climate change and human activities in a certain region are presented “alternating, coexisting, and turning sharply”, and has the obvious time characteristic. It may significantly affect the regional agricultural production, population, economic development and social progress. Usually occurring at region scales, droughts and floods are longstanding and devastating climatic threats to mankind. It has become a "hot spot" of the current social problems and was listed in "the past global change" and "climate variability and predictability" two big international research programs. They are challenging to predict, mainly due to the extreme variations of precipitation in spatiotemporal scales with the region. the risk of floods and droughts has increased rapidly in different regions. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of the regional multi-scale features of floods and droughts is enormous importance for risk management and climate change's adaptation and mitigation measures.【Objective】This paper may provide a reference basis for revealing the occurrence mechanism of regional drought and flood disaster in Weinan region during the Ming and Qing dynasties.【Method】Drought and flood disasters in historical documents of “A compendium of Chinese Meteorological records of the last 3000 years” are counted, analyzed and reconstructed in Weinan region during the Ming and Qing dynasties. Multi-scale features of drought and flood disasters in this region during the Ming and Qing dynasties were analyzed by ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and so on. 【Result】Drought and flood disasters in Weinan region generally showed a trend of first increasing, then decreasing and then tending to be stable. Drought and flood disasters in this region on time scale have significant interannual oscillation with a 2-5-year scale, interdecadal oscillations with quasi-10-year, quasi-18-year, quasi-27-year, quasi-52-year, quasi-84-year scales and a centennial oscillation with a quasi-100-year scale, which had a good correspondence with the 2-5a cycle of El Ni?o, solar activity of quasi-10-year cycle, quasi-50-year cycle and centennial scale cycle and the 20-30a cycle of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively. The analysis of wavelet cross spectrum and wavelet condensate spectrum showed that drought and flood disasters in Weinan region had a good resonance cycle with solar activity, El Ni?o and Pacific interdecadal oscillation, respectively, indicating that drought and flood disasters in this region may be affected by El Ni?o, solar activity and Pacific interdecadal oscillation. The interannual and interdecadal variation cycles of quasi-4a and quasi-38a in Weinan region during the Ming and Qing dynasties can explain 59.5% and 20.1% of the variance variables of drought and flood disasters, respectively, indicating that the oscillating signals of drought and flood disasters in this region on the interannual scale may be stronger than those on the interdecadal scale.【Conclusion】The drought and flood disasters in Weinan region during the Ming and Qing dynasties showed significant multi-scale features, which may be closely related to solar activity, El Ni?o and the decadal oscillation of the Pacific Ocean.
Key words: Weinan region; Ming and Qing dynasties; Drought and flood disasters; Climate change; Interannual-centennial time scale |
| Key words: Weinan region; Ming and Qing dynasties; Drought and flood disasters; Climate change; Interannual-centennial time scale |
