| 引用本文: | 张月,邓可楠,高雅文,等.利用累积湿润指数评估湖北棉花生育期内旱涝灾害影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| Zhang Yue,Deng Kenan,Gao Yawen,et al.利用累积湿润指数评估湖北棉花生育期内旱涝灾害影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
|
| 摘要: |
| 【目的】揭示湖北省棉花生育期内的旱涝灾害特征，为棉田旱涝灾害防控工作提供参考依据。【方法】基于湖北省1961-2019年26个典型气象站点逐日气象资料，计算了棉花生育期内逐旬累积湿润指数，从而分析了棉花各生育期的旱涝变化特征，并揭示了不同生育期旱涝强度与棉花气象产量的关联性。【结果】除棉花吐絮期外，苗期、蕾期和花铃期内的累积湿润指数值均呈上升趋势，且在蕾期内指数上升幅度最大。累积湿润指数在1964年苗期和1969年吐絮期内发生过显著突变，分别造成了苗期涝渍和吐絮期干旱情况的加剧；在其他时期未发现指数显著突变。湖北棉花旱涝灾害以涝为主，干旱次数较少且强度较低。棉花最易在苗期受涝，而最易在花铃期受旱。就涝害发生频率的地区分布而言，整体呈现西南部、东南部高而西北部低的特征，而就干旱发生频率分布而言，整体呈现出中北部高、西南部低的特征。花铃期是棉花最易因旱涝灾害导致减产的生育期，且仅在该时期内棉花的气象产量与旱、涝强度指标均显著(p<0.05)相关；此外，涝害的减产作用大于干旱。鄂西南地区蕾期、鄂西南地区花铃期和鄂西北地区吐絮期为因涝减产的高风险地区/时段；鄂中南地区和鄂东南地区花铃期，以及鄂东南地区吐絮期为因旱减产的高风险地区/时段。【结论】湖北省棉田旱涝防治工作以除涝为主，尤其需注意在花铃期内及时灌溉和排水以防显著棉花减产；各地区的旱涝防治工作重点不同，因旱涝形式和发生时期而异。 |
| 关键词: 累积湿润指数；棉花；干旱；涝渍；气象产量；湖北省 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S271 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51909286)；中央高校基本科研业务费(19lgpy255)；中国博士后科学(2018M643308) |
|
| Estimating the impacts of drought and flood disasters during cotton growth periods in Hubei Province using the accumulative humidity index |
|
Zhang Yue1, Deng Kenan1, Gao Yawen1, Qian Long2, Chen Cheng3,4, Huang Taoxing5
|
|
1.WUHAN UNIVERSITY;2.SUN YAT-SEN UNIVERSITY;3.Shanghai Investigation, Design &4.Research Institute Co., Ltd.;5.Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Power China
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】To reveal the characteristics of drought and flood disasters during cotton growth periods in Hubei Province, providing a basis for water disasters prevention and control in cotton fields.【Method】Based on daily meteorological data of 26 typical meteorological stations in Hubei Province from 1961 to 2019, the ten-day accumulative humidity index was computed. Then the variations of drought and flood events in the four major cotton growth stages (i.e., seedling stage, budding stage, flowering and boll-forming stage, and boll opening stage) were analyzed. Moreover, the correlation relationships between the drought/flood event intensity and the corresponding cotton climatic yields were revealed.【Result】In Hubei Province, except the boll opening stage of cotton, the other three cotton growth stages were confronted with upward trends of the accumulative humidity index; additionally, the greatest increasing trend appeared at the budding stage. During the seedling stage in 1964 and the boll-opening stage in 1969, significant mutations of the accumulative humidity index were detected, which referred to significantly wetter conditions and drier conditions, respectively. In comparison, there was no significant mutation at any other growth stages in any years. Flood was identified as the dominating form of the water disasters for cotton in Hubei, while drought events were with fewer times and lower intensity. Among various cotton growth stages, the seedling stage was the period at which cotton was most likely to be confronted with flood events, and the flowering and boll-forming stage was the period at which drought events most frequently occurred. For the spatial distributions of cotton flood events in terms of the disaster frequency spatial distribution, the southwest and southeast Hubei and the northwest Hubei faced high and low risk, respectively. In terms of the spatial distribution of drought frequency, the north-central Hubei and southwest Hubei faced high and low risk, respectively. According to the regression analysis result for the whole Hubei region, the flowering and boll-forming stage was the period during which cotton yield were most severely affected by the droughts and floods. Moreover, it is the only cotton growth stage during which both drought and flood indices were found significantly (p<0.05) associated with the cotton climatic yield. During this growth stage, it was also found that the negative effect of flood on cotton climatic yield was greater than drought did, implying that cotton flood disaster was more harmful than cotton drought disaster. In addition, the above-mentioned negative impacts of drought and flood event on cotton climatic yields varied with regions and growth stages. Specifically, the southwest Hubei during the budding stage, the southwest Hubei during the flowering and boll-forming stage, and the northwest Hubei during the boll opening stage were under high risk of yield reduction that caused by flood. On the other hand, the south-central and southeast Hubei at the flowering and boll-forming stage and the southeast Hubei at the boll-opening stage were under high risk of yield reduction that caused by drought.【Conclusion】The prevention and control of water disasters for Hubei cotton are expected to mainly focus on timely drainage. During the flowering and boll-forming stage, timely irrigation and drainage should be performed to avoid severe yield reduction. Additionally, drought and flood prevention work should be specifically designed for different regions, varying with the form and the timings of water disasters. |
| Key words: accumulative humidity index; cotton; drought; waterlogging; climatic yield; Hubei Province |
