English
引用本文:王 柳.我国农田水利工程建设抵御水旱灾害效果评估[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-.
WANG Liu.我国农田水利工程建设抵御水旱灾害效果评估[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-.
【打印本页】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  【EndNote】   【RefMan】   【BibTex】
过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览 1127次   下载 0  
分享到: 微信 更多
我国农田水利工程建设抵御水旱灾害效果评估
王 柳
农业农村部规划设计研究院
摘要:
【目的】农田水利工程建设为高标准农田建设的重要内容,其建设标准为高标准农田的重要指标之一。2011年中央一号文件提出“大兴农田水利建设”,之后,伴随着高标准农田建设的发展,农田水利工程建设进入较大的发展阶段,投资超过800亿元,为评估我国过去农田水利工程建设减轻水旱灾害的效果,进行了该项研究。【方法】以2011年为时间节点,将各省级行政区降水量和水、旱灾受灾率数据分成2组,进行分析建立模型,考察2个时段内水、旱灾受灾率随降水量的变化,考察2个时段水旱灾受灾率、成灾率和轻灾率的差异显著性。【结果】1994~2010年水灾受灾率随降水量的增加呈极显著增加趋势,说明水灾受灾率受降水量影响大,而2011~2018年水灾受灾率则与降水量无显著关系;1994~2010和2011~2018年旱灾受灾率随降水量的增加显著降低,但2011~2018年比1994~2010年旱灾受灾率受降雨量影响的程度减小。除浙江、安徽、四川和宁夏4省区降水量有显著差异外,其他省份建2时段差异不显著。2011~2018年时段内旱灾受灾率、成灾率和轻灾率比建设前分别降低了5.14~22.52、2.21~16.79和3.03~10.41百分点;水灾受灾率和成灾率则比建设前分别降低了3.21~9.15、1.75~4.54和1.46~3.31百分点。结合各省区的多年平均降水量数据分析表明,农田水利工程建设对于大多数干旱、半干旱和半湿润地区如北京、天津、河北、山西、内蒙、吉林、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、新疆、辽宁和黑龙江的抗旱效果较明显;对于湿润地区,如福建、江西、湖北、湖南、贵州和云南则抗涝效果较明显;在某些半湿润地区如山东、河南,和某些湿润地区如江苏、广东、广西、重庆兼具抗旱和抗涝效果。【结论】总体农田水利工程建设抗旱效果显著高于抗涝效果;旱灾受灾率和成灾率降低比水灾降低多,农田水利工程建设的稳产效果,在干旱地区好于雨量充沛地区。该研究可为未来农田水利设施建设区域规划提供参考。
关键词:  农田水利工程;高标准农田;水灾;旱灾;抗灾能力;评估
DOI:
分类号:F301.2
基金项目:全国高标准农田建设总体规划(农业农村部2018-2020)
Effect Evaluation of Farmland Irrigation and Drainage Engineering on Reducing Flood and Drought Disasters since 2011 in China
WANG Liu
Academy of Agricultural Planning and Engineering,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
Abstract:
【Background】The farmland irrigation and drainage engineering is an important part of the construction of high-facilitated farmland, and its construction standard is one of the important indicators of high-facilitated farmland. After suggestion of promoting farmland irrigation and drainage engineering construction was put forward by No.1 document of the Chinese Communist Party central committee in 2011, with the development of high-facilitated farmland construction, farmland irrigation and drainage engineering developed faster than that before 2011, with an investment of more than 80 billion Yuan. 【Objective】In order to evaluate the effect of farmland irrigation and drainage engineering on reducing flood and drought disasters and stabilizing yield since 2011, the precipitation, the standard ratios of flood and drought affected areas to seeded areas of each province were divided into two groups which are 1994-2010, 2011-2018. 【Method】The linear model was used for fitting the changes of flood and drought disaster rate with precipitation in the two periods. Then one-way ANOVA analysis of the two groups of precipitation data were carried out to ensure that there was no significant difference in precipitation between the two groups. Then, the difference of the standard ratios of flood and drought affected areas to seeded areas, the standard ratios of flood and drought suffered areas to seeded areas, and ratios of flood and draught affected areas with yield loss rate of 10% - 30% to seeded areas between two groups were investigated.【Result】The results showed that that the standard ratios of flood affected areas to seeded areas increased significantly with the increase of precipitation from 1994 to 2010, indicating that the flood disaster rate was greatly affected by precipitation in this period, while the flood disaster rate had no significant relationship with precipitation from 2011 to 2018; the standard ratios of drought affected areas to seeded areas decreased significantly with the increase of precipitation from 1994 to 2010 and 2011 to 2018, and the slope of regression line from 2011 to 2018 was less than that from 1994 to 2010, indicating that the influence of rainfall on the drought disaster was reduced. Except for Zhejiang, Anhui, Sichuan and Ningxia, there was no significant difference in precipitation between two groups in other provinces. During the period of 2011-2018, the ratios of drought affected areas to seeded areas, drought suffered areas to seeded areas and drought affected areas with yield loss rate of 10%~30% to seeded areas decreased 5.14-22.52, 2.21-16.79 and 3.03-10.41 percentage point compared with that during the period of 1994-2010, while the ratios of flood affected areas to seeded areas, flood suffered areas to seeded areas and flood affected areas with yield loss rate of 10%~30% to seeded areas decreased 3.21-9.15, 1.75 - 4.54 and 1.46-3.31 percentage point respectively. The farmland irrigation and drainage engineering had obvious drought resistance effect for province in arid region, semi-arid region, semi-humid region, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Liaoning and Heilongjiang; some province in humid region, the flood resistance effect is obvious, such as Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guizhou and Yunnan; in some province in semi-humid region, such as Shandong and Henan, and some province in humid region, such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Chongqing, had both drought and flood resistance effects.【Conclusion】The results show that the drought resistance effect of farmland irrigation and drainage engineering is higher than that of flood resistance; the absolute value of drought disaster resistance is greater than flood disaster resistance, and the stable yield effect of farmland irrigation and drainage engineering in arid area is better than that in rainfall rich area. This study can provide reference for future farmland irrigation and drainage engineering layout.
Key words:  irrigation and drainage;well- facilitated farmland; flood disasters; drought disaster; disaster resistance capability; evaluation