| 摘要: |
| 摘要：【目的】探索影响雨养农业生产的关键气象要素：温度、降水和蒸发的变化特征。【方法】以大柴旦1956—2017年的逐月降水量、温度、蒸发量数据为基础，采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、Morlet小波分析方法对该地区的降水量、温度、蒸发量进行了系统分析。【结果】大柴旦地区降水量呈增多趋势，温度呈增高趋势，蒸发量呈减小趋势；通过改进的Mann-Kendall突变检验法确定2001—2002年为降水量序列上升突变点，温度序列未发生突变，1998—1999年为蒸发量序列的减少突变点。降水量序列存在8、19、和29 a左右的变化周期；温度序列存在5、9、14和19 a左右的周期；蒸发量序列存在10 a和18 a左右的周期。【结论】预测大柴旦地区未来几年降水量处于小周期减少期，温度处于增高阶段，蒸发量将处于减少期。 |
| 关键词: 关键词：降水、温度与蒸发；Mann-Kendall检验；Morlet小波函数；大柴旦 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S162 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Analysis on the variation characteristics of rainfall, temperature and evaporation in Da Qaidam agricultural area |
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齐
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长安大学
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract:【Objective】Explore the key meteorological elements that affect the production of rain-fed agriculture: the change characteristics of temperature, precipitation and evaporation.【Method】This study used the data of monthly meteorological data from Da Chaidan area during the period from 1956 to 2017, Linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis was used to analyze the characteristics of precipitation, temperature and evaporation in this area.【Result】The results show that: in Da Chaidan area, precipitation and temperature presented an increasing trend and the evaporation presented a downward trend from 1956 to 2017. Through the Mann-Kendall test, it is determined that 2001—2002 is the increasing catastrophe point of precipitation sequence, the temperature sequence has no catastrophe point, and 1998—1999 is the catastrophe point of evaporation sequence. The precipitation had the periodicity of 8, 19, and 29 a; The temperature had the periodicity of 5, 9, 14, and 19 a; The evaporation had the periodicity of 10 a and 18 a.【Conclusion】It is predicted that the precipitation in the Dachaidan area will be in a period of small cycles of reduction in the next few years, the temperature will be in the rising phase, and the annual evaporation will be in a period of reduction. |
| Key words: Key Words：precipitation；temperature；evaporation；Mann-Kendall test；Morlet wavelet；Da Qaida |
