| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究山东省干旱的时空变化规律。【方法】使用山东省25个国家气象观测站近1981—2020年气温、降水月值数据，计算了各站点季节尺度和年尺度标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），通过线性回归、泰森多边形、空间插值、小波分析等方法，对山东省干旱时空变化特征进行了分析研究。【结果】（1）山东省秋季降水量呈不显著减少趋势，其他季节及全年降水量都呈不显著增加趋势；各季节、全年平均气温均呈显著上升趋势；（2）山东省季节及年时间尺度以干湿状态交替出现为主，夏季及全年的干湿状态变化相对比较平缓。（3）山东省春季、秋季干旱覆盖面积呈不显著的增长趋势，夏季、冬季及全年的干旱覆盖面积呈不显著的下降趋势；（4）山东省春季干旱频率大体上由鲁西南、鲁东南向北逐渐上升；夏季和全年各地干旱频率差别较小，没有很明显的走向；秋季干旱频率大体上由北向南逐渐上升；冬季干旱频率大体上由鲁西南和鲁中山区逐渐向西北和东南上升；（5）山东省春季干旱变化的主周期为10、29、4 和17 a，夏季主周期为20、4、7 和10 a，秋季主周期为14、6、25、8 和3 a，冬季主周期为5、24、16、10 a，年尺度主周期为23、14、4、10、7 a。【结论】山东省气温上升趋势显著，降水变化趋势不显著，干湿状态交替出现，且干湿变化具有明显的周期性。 |
| 关键词: 干旱；标准化降水蒸散指数；变化特征；趋势分析；山东省 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P426.616 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(41401103)；山东省气象局科学研究项目(2019sdqxm23)。 |
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| Spatiotemporal variation characteristics and trend analysis of drought in Shandong province based on SPEI |
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Ren Jiancheng
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滨州市气象局
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】To explore the temporal and spatial variation law of drought in Shandong Province.【Methods】Using the monthly temperature and precipitation data of 25 national meteorological stations in Shandong Province from 1981 to 2020, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at seasonal and annual scales of each station is calculated. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought in Shandong Province are analyzed and studied by means of linear regression, Tyson polygon, spatial interpolation and wavelet analysis.【Results】(1) The autumn precipitation in Shandong Province showed no significant decreasing trend, and the precipitation in other seasons and the whole year showed no significant increasing trend; The average temperature of each season and the whole year showed a significant upward trend;(2) The seasonal and annual time scales of Shandong Province mainly appear alternately in dry and wet state, and the change of dry and wet state in summer and throughout the year is relatively gentle;(3) The drought coverage in spring and autumn in Shandong Province showed an insignificant increasing trend, while the drought coverage in summer, winter and the whole year showed an insignificant decreasing trend;(4) The frequency of spring drought in Shandong Province increases gradually from southwest and Southeast Shandong to north; There is little difference in drought frequency between summer and the whole year, and there is no obvious trend; In autumn, the frequency of drought increased gradually from north to south; The frequency of drought in winter increases gradually from Southwest Shandong and Zhongshan region to northwest and Southeast;(5) The main periods of drought variation in Shandong Province are 10, 29, 4 and 17a in spring, 20, 4 ,7 and 10a in summer, 14,6,25,8 and 3a in autumn, 5,24,16 and 10a in winter and 23,14,4,10 and 7a in annual scale.【Conclusion】The rising trend of temperature in Shandong Province is significant, the change trend of precipitation is not significant, the dry and wet state occurs alternately, and the dry and wet change has obvious periodicity. |
| Key words: drought; Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; change characteristics; trend analysis;Shandong province |
