| 引用本文: | 刘波,樊成芳,束龙仓,等.考虑气候变化与人类活动影响的三江平原典型区地下水埋深预估[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| LiuBo,FanChengfang,ShuLongcang,et al.考虑气候变化与人类活动影响的三江平原典型区地下水埋深预估[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】预估未来发展情景下三江平原典型区地下水埋深对气候变化和人类活动的响应，为管理部门制定气候变化适应策略、合理利用地下水资源提供科学依据和技术参考。【方法】分析三江平原典型区地下水埋深动态特征，采用分期建模的方式对三江平原典型区非灌溉季（10—次年4月）和灌溉季（5—9月）分别建立支持向量机回归模型进行地下水埋深模拟，利用CMIP6发布的气候变化和灌区开采量变化情景，预估2020―2050年该区地下水埋深的响应。【结果】2001―2017年三江平原典型区地下水埋深多年平均增幅为0.2 m/a，非灌溉季主要受降水影响，灌溉季主要受灌区开采活动影响。与现状年（2001―2017年）比较，在温室气体高排放SSP585情景下，三江平原未来年降水量增加26.76 mm，若灌区开采量在2025年前逐年增加5%，灌溉季地下水埋深将增加17.11 cm，非灌溉季减小1.35 cm；在可持续发展SSP126情景下，未来年降水量增加26.56 mm，若开采量在2025年前逐年减少5%，地下水埋深在灌溉季将减小19.76 cm，非灌溉季减小0.92 cm。【结论】开采活动是影响三江平原地下水埋深的主要因素，未来气候变化的影响主要显现在非灌溉季，限制开采措施能够有效恢复区域地下水位。采用分期建模的方法能有效反映灌区地下水均衡要素的年内变化，较好地模拟地下水埋深对气候变化和人类开采活动的响应。 |
| 关键词: 地下水埋深；分期建模；未来情景；地下水开采；三江平原 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S512.11 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(41971027)；国家自然科学基金青年项目(41701015) |
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| Simulation and Projection of the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Groundwater Depth in Typical Area of Sanjiang Plain |
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LiuBo, FanChengfang, ShuLongcang, WangWenpeng, HuXin
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HoHai University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Sanjiang Plain, located in the northeast of Heilongjiang Province, is formed by the alluvial and diluvial deposits of Heilong River, Wusuli River and Songhua River. It is a fertile land and an important commodity grain base in China. The amounts of agricultural irrigation water account for more than 90% of the total groundwater exploitation. With the potential impact of climate change on water resources, it is important to understand and project the impact of climate change and human activities on groundwater dynamic at present and in future scenarios. The results may provide scientific support for sustainable regulation and management of groundwater resources in Sanjiang Plain.【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to project the response of groundwater depth to climate change and human activities in the typical area of Sanjiang Plain under future development scenarios, and to provide theoretical basis and scientific guidance for climate change adaptation strategies and rational utilization of groundwater resources of local administration.【Method】The groundwater regime in typical areas of Sanjiang Plain were analyzed, and the stepwise Support Vector Regression (SVR) was established to simulate groundwater depth in non-irrigated season (October to next April) and irrigated season (May to September). The data of climate change scenarios published by CMIP6 and the change of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation were applied to project the response of groundwater depth from 2020 to 2050.【Result】From 2001 to 2017, groundwater depth in typical areas of Sanjiang Plain increased by 0.2 m/a, and was mainly affected by precipitation in non-irrigation season and pumping activities in irrigation season. Compared with the current year (2001-2017), annual precipitation in Sanjiang Plain increased by 26.76 mm under the scenario of SSP585 with high greenhouse gas emissions in the future. If the exploitation increased 5% each year until 2025, groundwater depth may increase by 17.11 cm in irrigation season and decrease by 1.35 cm in non-irrigation season. Under the sustainable development scenario of SSP126, the annual precipitation may increase by 26.56mm in average. If the exploitation decreased 5% each year until 2025, groundwater depth will decrease by 19.76 cm in irrigated season and 0.92 cm in non-irrigated season.【Conclusion】Groundwater exploitation is the dominant factor of groundwater depth in Sanjiang Plain, and the impact of future climate change can emerge in non-irrigation period. The rational groundwater pumping can effectively recover regional groundwater level from continuous decline. The stepwise modeling framework can effectively reflect the annual variation of groundwater budget in irrigated areas, better simulate the response of groundwater depth to climate factors and human exploitation activities. |
| Key words: groundwater depth; stepwise modeling；future scenarios; groundwater exploitation; Sanjiang Plain |
