| 引用本文: | 张 彦,邹 磊,梁志杰,等.气候变化和人类活动对灌区地下水埋深的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| Zhang Yan,Zou Lei,Liang Zhijie,et al.气候变化和人类活动对灌区地下水埋深的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 气候变化和人类活动对灌区地下水埋深的影响 |
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张 彦1,2, 邹 磊3, 梁志杰1,4, 吕 伟5, 窦 明2, 李 平1,4, 胡艳玲1, 齐学斌1,4
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1.中国农业科学院 农田灌溉研究所;2.郑州大学 水利科学与工程学院;3.中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室;4.农业农村部 农产品质量安全水环境因子风险评估实验室;5.浙江大禹信息技术有限公司
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探析气候变化和人类活动对灌区地下水埋深的影响。【方法】利用年代波动性分析、突变检验分析、灰色关联分析、敏感性分析、双累积曲线法和相对贡献率等方法分析了人民胜利渠灌区1952—2013年地下水埋深及其影响因素的变化和突变特征，并识别了地下水埋深与各影响因素间的响应特征。【结果】人民胜利渠灌区地下水埋深呈明显增加趋势（0.8 m/10 a）。地下水埋深在1952—1959年的变异系数最大，为27.33%，呈现中等变异性；降水量、蒸发量、平均气温和灌溉水量在1960s的变异系数最大，其中蒸发量和平均气温呈现弱变异性。地下水埋深、降水量、蒸发量、平均气温和灌溉水量的突变年份分别发生在1984年、1970s、1972年前后、1973年前后以及1993—1996年。各影响因素对地下水埋深的影响程度大小为平均气温＞降水量＞灌溉水量＞蒸发量，敏感程度为平均气温＞蒸发量＞降水量＞灌溉水量。总体上各影响因素对地下水埋深的贡献大小呈平均气温＞蒸发量＞灌溉水量＞降水量，其中平均气温的贡献率最大为38.16%，降水量的贡献率最小为17.40%；2002—2013年灌溉水量对地下水埋深的贡献率最大为47.05%。【结论】不同时间阶段各影响因素对地下水埋深的贡献不同，1952—1963年蒸发量的贡献最大，1964—2001年平均气温的贡献最大，2002—2013年灌溉水量的贡献最大。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化;人类活动;地下水埋深;响应特征;相对贡献率 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TV213 |
| 基金项目:河南省科技攻关项目（212102311144，212102310484）；河南省自然科学基金（212300410310）；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项（FIRI202001-05，FIRI20210105）；国家自然科学基金项目（51879239，42101043）。 |
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| Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Groundwater Depth in the Irrigation District |
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Zhang Yan,Zou Lei,Liang Zhijie,et al
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1.Institute of Farmland Irrigation, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences;2.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences;3.Zhejiang Dayu Information Technology Limited Company;4.School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】As a stable water source for sustainable and green development in irrigation district, groundwater was greatly affected by climatic conditions and human activities. The increase of groundwater depth would severely restrict the high-quality development of industry and agriculture in irrigation district. Therefore, the research on the response characteristics of climate change and human activities to the change of groundwater depth could provide a certain theoretical basis for the rational development and sustainable development of groundwater in irrigation district. 【Objective】In order to explore the effects of climate change and human activities on groundwater depth in the irrigation district. 【Method】The variation and mutation characteristics of groundwater depth and its influencing factors were analyzed in the People’s victory canal irrigation district form 1952—2013, and the response characteristics between groundwater depth and each influencing factor were identified using the decadal volatility analysis, mutation test analysis, gray correlation analysis, sensitivity analysis, double cumulative curve method and relative contribution rate methods. 【Result】The groundwater depth showed an obvious increasing trend in the People's victory canal irrigation district (0.8m/10a). The maximum coefficient of variation of groundwater depth during 1952—1959 was 27.33%, showing moderate variability; the coefficients of variation of the precipitation, evaporation, average temperature and irrigation water quantity in 1960s were the largest, in which the evaporation and average temperature showed weak variability. The abrupt years of groundwater depth, precipitation, evaporation, average temperature and irrigation water quantity occurred in 1984, 1970s, around 1972, around 1973 and 1993—1996, respectively. The influence degree of each influencing factor on groundwater depth was average temperature > precipitation > irrigation water quantity > evaporation, and the sensitivity degree was average temperature > evaporation > precipitation > irrigation water quantity. In general, the contribution of each influencing factor to groundwater depth was average temperature > evaporation > irrigation water quantity > precipitation, the maximum average temperature was 38.16% and the minimum precipitation was 17.40%; the largest contribution of irrigation water quantity to groundwater depth from 2002 to 2013 was 47.05%. 【Conclusion】The main factors affecting the groundwater depth at different time stages were different, the evaporation was the most affected from 1952 to 1963, the average temperature was the most affected from 1964 to 2001, and the irrigation water quantity was the most affected from 2002 to 2013. |
| Key words: climate change; human activities; groundwater depth; response characteristic; relative contribution rate |
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