| 引用本文: | 何虹,王巧娟,李亮,等.宁夏引黄灌区玉米趋势产量与气候产量分离方法的比较分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,():-. |
| HE Hong,WANG QiaoJuan,LI Liang,et al.宁夏引黄灌区玉米趋势产量与气候产量分离方法的比较分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探寻引黄灌区长时间序列玉米产量的适宜分离方法。【方法】本研究以宁夏引黄灌区6个市（县）1988—2019年玉米产量统计资料为基础数据，通过五年滑动平均法、二次指数平滑法和五点二次平滑法对实际产量分别进行分离，得到趋势产量与气候产量，并采用一致性相关系数法、趋势产量实际趋势符合度分析方法和同一气候区气候变化特征的一致性可引起气候产量同升同降等作为评判标准，比较分析适用性与合理性，并对选出的方法利用气候因子与产量之间的合理关系进行检验。【结果】不同方法均能较好地拟合趋势产量，与研究区的趋势产量的一致性相关系数大多数达到较好和极好等级，3种方法在趋势产量拟合上无明显差别；而二次指数平滑法和五点二次平滑法拟合的趋势产量序列能较真实地反映因生产力和国家政策变化等导致的实际产量变化，五年滑动平均法拟合的趋势产量变化体现实际社会发展的能力最差；当研究区各地区气候变化特征基本相同时，五点二次平滑法分离得到的相对气候产量更能体现气候要素年际变化对其产量的影响；五点二次平滑法建立的相对气候产量模型能够合理地反映气候因子与产量的关系，符合玉米生长发育特性。【结论】综合分析，五点二次平滑法更具有普适性，可以反映因气候因子变化带来的产量变化。 |
| 关键词: 玉米；趋势产量；气候产量；分离方法 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S16 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(51879223)；国家重点研发项目(2016YFC0400201) |
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| Comparative Analysis of Methods for Separation Between Maize Trend Yield and Meteorological Yield of Yellow River Diversion Irrigation Area in Ningxia, China |
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HE Hong1,2, WANG QiaoJuan1,2, LI Liang1,2, CAI HuanJie1,2
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1.College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northwest A &2.F University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The correct assessment of the impact of meteorological change on crop yield must be bases on the premise of accurate meteorological yield. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how to explore a suitable method for long time series maize yield separation in Yellow River irrigation area.【Method】Based on the statistical data of maize yield for 1988 to 2019 from 6 counties of Yellow River Irrigation Area in Ningxia are used to analyze the rationality of different separation methods. Three separation methods are five -year moving average method, the quadratic exponential smoothing and the five-point quadratic smoothing to separate the actual yield for obtaining the trend yield and meteorological yield. The consistency correlation coefficient, the trend yield coincidence of actual yield trend conformity analysis method and the consistency of climate change characteristics in the same meteorological area can lead to the same rise and fall of meteorological yield were used as the evaluation criteria, and their applicability and rationality were compared and analyzed. Finally, as mentioned above, the selected method is calibrated by the rationality of the relationship between meteorological factors and yield.【Result】The trend yield can be well fitted by different methods. Compared with the average trend yield, almost all the consistency correlation coefficients are greater than 0.5. It suggests that there is no significant difference in trend fitting different methods. However, the trend yield series fitted by quadratic exponential smoothing method and five-point quadratic smoothing method can both truly reflected the actual yield affected by the changes in the levels of national productivity and national policy. This suggested that the goodness of fit for quadratic exponential smoothing method and five-point quadratic smoothing method with actual trend yield was best, whereas the goodness of for the five-year moving average method had the worst performance. When the basic phase of regional meteorological change characteristics at the same time, the relative meteorological yield separated by five-point quadratic smoothing method can better reflect the effect of inter-annual meteorological factors on the yield well, and the relative meteorological yield model established can reasonably reflect the relationship between meteorological factors and yield, which accords with the growth and development characteristics of maize.【Conclusion】Comprehensive analysis shows that the five-point quadratic smoothing method is more universal for this research area and can reflect the yield changes caused by meteorological factors. |
| Key words: maize; trend yield; meteorological yield; separation methods |
