摘要: |
利用陇东地表径流量以及国家气象站的降水量、气温等气象要素资料,研究分析了气候变化背景下陇东地区地表水资源及其影响要素变化情况。结果表明:陇东地区近60年地表水资源总体呈显著下降趋势,泾河、马莲河、蒲河径流量平均每10a分别减少1.05亿m3、0.28亿m3、0.28亿m3;地表径流量季节大小为:夏季>秋季>春季>冬季;径流量年内分布不均匀,均呈“单峰型”,峰值主要集中于7-9月;泾河、马莲河、蒲河的丰水期均在1980s以前,枯水期始于1990s,Mann-Kendall检验显示,减小趋势在21世纪之后达极显著的水平;气象要素分析显示,陇东地区降水量呈弱增加趋势,温度和潜在蒸散量均为显著上升趋势;Pearson相关系数分析表明,降水量、潜在蒸散量均是影响陇东地区地表径流量变化的主要因素,相关性较高;年均气温与泾河、蒲河的年径流量相关性高,与马莲河相关性较弱。 |
关键词: 气候变化;陇东地区;地表水资源;突变检验 |
DOI: |
分类号:TV121;P333 |
基金项目:甘肃省科技计划(编号:20JR5RM626) |
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Analysis on the Change Characteristics of Surface Water Resources in Longdong Area under Climate Change in Recent 60 Years |
Zhang Kexin
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Qingyang Meteorological Bureau
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Abstract: |
Based on the data of surface runoff in the Longdong Area and meteorological elements such as precipitation and temperature from the National Weather Station, this paper analyzed the changes of surface water resources and its influencing factors in the east of Gansu under the background of climate change. The results are as follows: During the period from 1956 to 2016, the surface water resources in Longdong area showed a significant downward trend. The runoff of the Jinghe, Malian and Puhe Rivers has been reduced by 1.05×108 m3, 0.28×108 m3, and 0.28 ×108 m3 for every 10 years on average.The seasonal surface runoff was: summer >autumn > spring > winter. The runoff was unevenly distributed throughout the year, all showed "single peak", with the peak mainly concentrated in July to September. The high-water periods of the Jinghe, Malian, and Puhe rivers were all before 1980s, and the low-water period started in 1990s. Mann-Kendall mutation test showed that the decreasing trend has reached a very significant level after the 21st century. The analysis of meteorological elements showed that the precipitation has a weak increasing trend, while the temperature and potential evapotranspiration all have a significant increasing trend. Pearson correlation coefficient analysis showed that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are the main factors affecting surface runoff changes in Longdong area, and the correlation is relatively high. The annual average temperature has a high correlation with the annual runoff of the Jinghe and Puhe rivers, but a weak correlation with the Malian river. |
Key words: climate change; Longdong area; Surface water resources; Mann-Kendall mutation test |