| 引用本文: | 王飞宇,张 彦,邹 磊,等.基于Copula函数的汉江流域降水径流丰枯遭遇研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| WANG Feiyu,Zhang Yan,ZOU Lei,et al.基于Copula函数的汉江流域降水径流丰枯遭遇研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】汉江作为长江最大的支流，探究其流域内降水径流丰枯遭遇风险对汉江流域水资源科学管理具有重要意义。【方法】基于汉江流域4个水文站径流及其控制流域的降水数据，利用二维和三维Copula函数构建降水径流丰枯遭遇联合分布模型，分析了流域降水径流丰枯遭遇风险概率。【结果】汉江上游石泉站和白河站径流量及控制流域降水量间的丰枯同步概率较大，分别为73.06%和73.45%，中游黄家港站丰枯异步概率最大，达45.21%；汉江上中游石泉站、白河站和黄家港站丰枯同步概率呈现出同枯＞同丰＞同平，而下游仙桃站为同平＞同枯＞同丰。汉江上中游石泉站、白河站和黄家港站组合下控制流域降水量间的丰枯同步概率较大，为72.88%；流域内不同站点组合下控制流域降水量的丰枯同步概率呈同平＞同枯＞同丰，径流量的丰枯同步概率均呈同枯＞同丰＞同平。【结论】汉江流域上游径流量及控制流域降水量的丰枯一致性较好，下游的丰枯一致性相对较好，而中游的丰枯一致性较差；不同站点组合下控制流域降水量的丰枯具有相对较好的一致性，而径流量的丰枯同步、丰枯异步概率差异性不显著。 |
| 关键词: 汉江流域;Copula函数;降水径流;丰枯遭遇;概率 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P333 |
| 基金项目:美丽中国生态文明建设科技工程专项资助（No. XDA23040304）；河南省自然科学基金项目（212300410310）；河南省科技攻关项目（212102311144）；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项（FIRI2022-01）。 |
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| Research on the Wetness-dryness Encountering of Rainfall-runoff in Hanjiang River Basin Based on Copula Functions |
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WANG Feiyu1, Zhang Yan2, ZOU Lei1, WANG Cai3, CHEN Ting4, YU Fei-long5
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1.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.Farmland Irrigation Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences;3.Nantong Branch of the Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Jiangsu Province;4.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University;5.Nanjing Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】As the largest tributary of the Yangtze River, it is of great significance to explore the risk of wetness-dryness encountering for rainfall and runoff for scientific water resources management in the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB). 【Method】Based on the runoff data of four hydrological stations and precipitation data of the control catchment in the HRB, the joint distribution model of wetness-dryness encountering for rainfall and runoff were constructed by using two-dimensional and three-dimensional Copula functions, and the risk probabilities of wetness-dryness encountering for rainfall and runoff were analyzed. 【Result】The results showed that the synchronous wetness-dryness probabilities between runoff and rainfall in the control catchment at Shiquan and Baihe stations in the upper reaches of the HRB were higher, 73.06% and 73.45% respectively; the asynchronous wetness-dryness probability at Huangjiagang station in the middle reaches of the HRB was the highest, reaching 45.21%; the synchronous wetness-dryness probabilities at Shiquan, Baihe and Huangjiagang stations in the upper and middle reaches of the HRB presented the synchronous dryness > synchronous wetness > synchronous normal, while at Xiantao station in the lower reaches, the synchronous wetness-dryness probability showed the synchronous normal > synchronous dryness > synchronous wetness. The synchronous wetness-dryness probabilities of rainfall in the control catchment for the combination of Shiquan, Baihe and Huangjiagang stations in the upper and middle reaches of the HRB were higher, 72.88%; the synchronous wetness-dryness probabilities of rainfall in the control catchment under different combinations of stations showed the synchronous normal > synchronous dryness > synchronous wetness, and that of runoff showed the synchronous dryness > synchronous wetness > synchronous normal. 【Conclusion】The consistency of wetness and dryness for runoff and rainfall in the upper reaches of the HRB was good, that in the lower reaches was relatively good, while that in the middle reaches was poor. The wetness-dryness of rainfall in the control catchment under different station combinations has relatively good consistency, while the difference between the synchronous and asynchronous wetness-dryness probabilities of runoff was not significant. |
| Key words: Hanjiang River Basin; Copula function; rainfall and runoff; wetness-dryness encountering; probability |
