| 引用本文: | 李晓琳,肖颖,邓姜艳,等.基于空间转移图谱的异龙湖流域土地利用时空变化特征及趋势预测[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| Li Xiaolin,Xiao Ying,Deng Jiangyan,et al.基于空间转移图谱的异龙湖流域土地利用时空变化特征及趋势预测[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 明晰高原湖泊流域土地利用动态变化特征,对湖泊环境保护及可持续发展有着重要意义。本研究选取了异龙湖流域1999~2018年的Landsat影像数据,通过遥感解译获取1999~2018年流域土地利用类型空间分布情况；基于空间转移图谱分析异龙湖流域近20年土地利用空间变化特征；利用CA-Markov模型预测2030年和2050年异龙湖流域土地利用变化趋势。结果表明：1999~2005年间异龙湖流域土地利用以耕地为主,2010~2018年土地利用则以林地为主；1999~2018年耕地、草地、未利用地和水域面积持续减少,减少面积分别为50.60 km2、27.17 km2、24.72 km2和6.66 km2；与之相反,林地和建筑用地明显增加。林地增加的来源主要是耕地、草地和未利用地；建筑用地的增加主要来源于耕地和未利用地。预计到2050年建筑用地和林地会持续增加,水域面积将减少。控制建设用地增加、控制湖泊面积持续缩小是未来异龙湖流域土地资源管理的重要目标。 |
| 关键词: 异龙湖流域;土地利用;转移矩阵;空间变化;CA-Markov模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P23 |
| 基金项目:云南省基础研究专项（202201AT070051）、西南林业大学科研启动(112115) |
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| Spatio-temporal change characteristics and trend prediction of land use in Yilong Lake Basin based on spatial transfer map |
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Li Xiaolin1, Xiao Ying1, Deng Jiangyan1, Zheng Yi2
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1.College of Ecology and Environment,Southwest Forestry University;2.Yunnan Open University
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| Abstract: |
| Clarifying the dynamic changes of land use in plateau lake basins is of great significance to the environmental protection of lakes and the realization of their sustainable development. This paper selects Landsat image data of Shiping County from 1999 to 2018, and obtains the spatial distribution and change characteristics of land use types in the Yilong Lake Basin through remote sensing interpretation, and uses the land use transfer matrix to analyze the characteristics of land use dynamic changes in the Yilong Lake Basin in the past 20 years. Finally, the CA-Markov model is used to predict the land use change trend of Yilong Lake Basin in 2030 and 2050. The results show that from 1999 to 2005, the land use in the Yilong Lake Basin was dominated by cropland, and the land use was dominated by forest from 2010 to 2018,. From 1999 to 2018, the area of cropland, pasture, unused land and water area continued to decrease, and the reduction area was respectively 50.60 km2, 27.17 km2, 24.72 km2 and 6.66 km2. On the contrary, forest and urban increased significantly. The increase of forest mainly comes from cropland, pasture and unused land; the increase of urban area mainly comes from cropland and unused land. It is expected that by 2050, urban and forest will continue to increase with areas of 98.62 km2 and 161.03 km2, while the area of water will decrease. They are the important goals of land resource management in Yilong lake watershed to control the increase of urban area and the decrease of lake area in the future. |
| Key words: Yilong Lake Basin; Land use; Transition matrix; Spatial change; CA-Markov model |
