| 引用本文: | 蒙华月,吴雨箫,钱 龙,等.湖北省棉花生育期内涝渍高温灾害特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,():-. |
| MENG Huayue,WU Yuxiao,QIAN Long,et al.湖北省棉花生育期内涝渍高温灾害特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,():-. |
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| 湖北省棉花生育期内涝渍高温灾害特征分析 |
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蒙华月1, 吴雨箫1, 钱 龙2, 罗云英3, 陈诚4, 许敏1, 邓靖瑶1
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1.武汉大学 水利水电学院;2.中山大学 土木工程学院;3.广州市水务科学研究所挂广州市二次供水技术咨询服务中心牌子;4.上海环境科学研究院
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】揭示湖北省棉花生育期内涝渍、高温以及涝热耦合事件的分布特征，为气候变化背景下制定棉田排水规划提供理论依据。【方法】基于1961―2020年间湖北省26个国家气象站逐日降水及气温数据统计了棉花不同生育期内涝渍次数、高温次数、涝热耦合次数以及涝渍转化为涝热耦合的比率（涝热耦合转化率），并分析了各项指标的时间线性趋势、突变规律以及空间分布特征。【结果】湖北棉花各生育期内涝渍次数均较多，而高温和涝热耦合事件主要集中在蕾期和花铃期。近60 a内，涝渍次数在蕾期出现了显著（p<0.05）上升，涝热耦合次数在花铃期和全生育期均出现了显著上升趋势，涝热耦合转化率在全生育期内显著上升。就年代际分布规律而言，高温与涝热耦合事件相似，且均在2000s年达到峰值；在2010s内各类涝渍高温事件的发生水平均处于历史高值。所有涝渍高温事件指标在全生育期均出现过显著突变，且大部分为正向突变（灾害增强）。涝热耦合灾害在花铃期内事件次数最多且涝热耦合转化率最高，尤其在鄂西南恩施、鄂西北襄阳和鄂中南钟祥的涝热耦合转化率均已超过30%。鄂东北黄冈是涝渍和涝热耦合的高倾向交叠区，涝渍倾向低但涝热耦合倾向高的地区包括鄂西北襄阳、鄂中南钟祥和荆州。【结论】湖北棉花近年来面临较大的涝热耦合灾害倾向性，需注意在花铃期高温天气条件下对棉田及时排水，尤其需关注鄂中南、鄂西北襄阳和鄂东北黄冈等地区的相关灾情。 |
| 关键词: 棉花;农田排水;暴雨;涝渍胁迫;高温胁迫 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S271 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(51909286)；中央高校基本科研业务费(2021qntd15) |
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| Spatio-temporal variations of waterlogging and high temperatures during cotton growth periods in Hubei province, China |
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MENG Huayue1, WU Yuxiao1, QIAN Long2, LUO Yunying3, CHEN Cheng4, XU Min1, DENG Jingyao1
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1.School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University;2.School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University;3.Guangzhou Hydraulic Research Institute (Technical Advisory Service Center for Secondary Water Supply of Guangzhou);4.Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The present work was performed to reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of waterlogging events (WL), high temperatures events (HT), and waterlogging events followed by high temperatures events (WL-HT) during different cotton growth stages in Hubei province, so as to provide guidance for local cotton drainage scheduling under increasing climate change.【Method】Based on daily data of precipitations and air temperatures from the 26 national-level meteorological stations located in Hubei province, the number of WL, HT, and WL-HT, as well as the conversion rate (%) from WL to WL-HT (hereafter referred as the conversion rate of WL-HT) was computed at four cotton growth stages, including the seedling stage, the budding stage, the flowering and boll-filling stage, and the boll opening stage. Then, various statistical methods, e.g., the linear temporal trend method, the moving t-test, and the inverse distance interpolation, were employed to reveal the spatial-temporal variations of different indicators of the disasters in Hubei.【Result】In the last six decades, the number of WL significantly (p<0.05) increased at the budding stage; the number of WL-ET significantly increased at the flowering and boll-filling stage and at the whole growth period. Moreover, the conversion rate of WL-HT also showed significant increasing trend over the whole cotton growth period. From the aspect of variations in decades, the occurrence of HT and WL-HT showed similar trends: both of them occurred least frequently in the 1980s and occurred most frequently in the 2000s. More importantly, in the most recent decade (2010s), the occurrence of WL, HT, and WL-HT simultaneously reached their historical high levels, which implies great risks of waterlogging and high temperatures for cotton in Hubei in recent periods. Significant mutations of WL, HT, and WL-HT over years were detected, among which most were positive, indicating significant enhancement of these disasters. Similar with the HT, the WL-HT was concentrated at the budding stage and the flowering and boll-filling stage. During the flowering and boll-filling stage, the WL-HT occurred most frequently and had the highest conversion rates of WL-HT; in particular, the conversion rates in the Enshi in south western Hubei, the Xiangyang in north western Hubei, and the Zhongxiang in south central Hubei were even greater than 30% (i.e., more than 30% WL have converted to WL-HT). From the aspect of spatial distribution, high-risk regions of different kinds of events differed obviously; however, the Huanggang in north eastern Hubei was both the high-risk regions of WL and WL-HT, thus being identified as a severely disaster-affected district. In comparison, some regions were with low WL but had great risk of WL-HT, including the Xiangyang, Zhongxiang and Jingzhou; the disastrous situation in these regions are prone to be underestimated in field drainage if only WL is considered. 【Conclusion】Cotton plants in Hubei province have been confronted with high risks of waterlogging events followed by high temperatures in the recent decade. Special attentions should be paid to timely drainage in cotton fields under high temperatures at the flowering and boll-filling stage, especially for the high-risk regions in south central Hubei, north western Hubei, and north eastern Hubei. |
| Key words: cotton; field drainage; rainstorms; waterlogging stress; heat stress |
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