| 引用本文: | 魏宣,王宁,周明通,等.气候变化和人类活动对克里雅河径流变化影响定量研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| WEI Xuan,WANG Ning,ZHOU Mingtong,et al.气候变化和人类活动对克里雅河径流变化影响定量研究[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】为深入了解克里雅河径流变化的潜在机制及驱动因素。【方法】基于趋势分析、相关性分析及突变分析，分别采用双累积曲线法及累积量斜率变化率比较法，计算气候变化和人类活动对克里雅河径流变化的贡献率。【结果】1958—2015年克里雅河流域年平均气温和年径流量呈一定的增加趋势且趋势显著，年降水量呈不显著增加趋势，而潜在蒸散发呈递减趋势且趋势显著；通过MK突变检验法、累积距平法和有序聚类法，综合确定克里雅河流域径流突变点为1999年；以1958—1999年为基准期，使用双累积曲线法计算得出2000—2015年气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为59.16%、40.84%，通过累积量斜率变化率比较法得出贡献率的结果分别为79.03%、20.97%。【结论】因此，气候变化是影响克里雅河径流变化的首要因素，人类活动是次要因素。 |
| 关键词: 双累积曲线法；克里雅河流域；气候变化；人类活动；累积量斜率变化率比较法 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P333 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“干旱流域下游河道地表水文过程及地下水时空响应研究”(41961003)；国家自然科学基金联合重点支持项目“地表水、浅层地下水对沙漠腹地天然绿洲植被格局影响机制研究” (U1703237) |
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| Quantitative study of the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in the Kriya River |
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WEI Xuan, WANG Ning, ZHOU Mingtong, GUO Yu-chuan
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XINJIANG University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】To gain insight into the potential mechanisms and drivers of runoff changes in the Kriya River.【Method】Based on trend analysis,correlation analysis and abrupt change analysis,the contribution of climate change and human activities to the change of runoff of the Kriya River was calculated using the double cumulative curve method and the comparison of the slope rate of change of cumulative volume,respectively.【Result】The results showed that the mean annual temperature and annual runoff in the Kriya River basin showed a certain significant increasing trend during 1958-2015,the annual precipitation showed a non-significant increasing trend,while the potential evapotranspiration showed a significant decreasing trend;the sudden change point of runoff in the Kriya River basin was determined in 1999 by the MK mutation test method,the cumulative distance level method and the ordered clustering method; using 1958-1999 as the reference period,the contribution of climate change and human activities to the runoff changes from 2000 to 2015 using the double cumulative curve method were calculated as 59.16% and 40.84%,respectively, and the results of contribution by the cumulative slope rate of change comparison method were 79.03% and 20.97%.【Conclusion】Therefore,climate change is the primary factor influencing the changes in the runoff of the Kriya River,and human activities are a secondary factor. |
| Key words: double cumulative curve method; Kriya River Basin;Climate change; human activities; comparison of the slope rate of change of cumulative volume |
