| 引用本文: | 董海波,陈小平,冯绍元,等.模拟气候变化对极端干旱区棉花产量和水分利用效率的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| DONG HAIBO,CHEN XIAOPING,FENG SHAOYUAN,et al.模拟气候变化对极端干旱区棉花产量和水分利用效率的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究气候变化对极端干旱区棉花生长和产量的影响及其关键气候影响因素。【方法】利用2018年新疆策勒绿洲棉田数据对根区水质模型（Root Zone Water Quality Model-version2，RZWQM2）进行率定和验证；基于验证后的模型模拟了气候变化（1960—2019）对棉花生育期、产量和灌溉水利用效率（IWUE）的影响，利用相关分析方法探究了关键气候要素与棉花生育期和产量的相关关系。【结果】结果表明，RZWQM2能够较好地模拟极端干旱区绿洲棉田各土壤层含水量（除0.15~0.25m）、棉花生长和产量，平均一致性指数（IOA）>0.75。模拟结果表明，棉花的出苗期、花期、吐絮期和成熟期均推迟，平均推迟时间约为每10 a 1.1、2.1、3.5、3.5d；棉花产量和IWUE均呈下降趋势，减少幅度分别为每10 a 45.95kg/hm2和0.13kg/（mm·hm2）。相关分析结果显示，气温和太阳辐射对棉花生长有显著影响，其中最低气温是影响棉花生育期的主导因子，最高气温对棉花的产量有一定负面影响；太阳辐射则是引起产量变化的主导因子。【结论】研究结果可为绿洲农业应对气候变化的影响提供一定的科学指导。 |
| 关键词: RZWQM2；气候变化；棉花产量；灌溉水利用效率（IWUE）；绿洲农业 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S274 |
| 基金项目:江苏省自然科学基金(BK20210825)；江苏省双创博士计划(JSSCBS20211014)；国家自然科学基金(52009118); |
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| Simulating the effects of climate change on cotton seed yield and water use efficiency in extreme arid region |
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DONG HAIBO, CHEN XIAOPING, FENG SHAOYUAN, ZHANG YOULIANG, WU HAO
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College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】To explore the effects of climate change on cotton growth and yield and its key climate influencing factors in extreme arid areas.【Method】The Root Zone Water Quality Model-Version2 (RZWQM2) was calibrated and validated using cotton field data from Qira Oasis in Xinjiang in 2018. The effects of climate change (1960~2019) on cotton growth period, yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) were simulated by the validated RZWQM2. The key climate factors and cotton growth period and yield were analyzed using the correlations method.【Result】RZWQM2 simulated well in soil water content for each layer (except 0.15~0.25m), cotton growth and yield in oasis cotton field in extreme arid area, with average consistency index (IOA) > 0.75. The simulation results showed that the emergence, flowering, cracked B1 and maturity stage of cotton were delayed, approximately 1.1, 2.1,3.5 and 3.5d per decade, respectively. The simulated cotton seed yield and IWUE decreased by 45.95kg/hm2 and 0.13kg/mm/hm2 per decade, respectively. The results of correlation analysis showed that air temperature and solar radiation had significantly affected on cotton growth, while the minimum temperature was the dominant factor for cotton growth period, but the maximum temperature had a certain negative effect on cotton yield. The solar radiation was the key factor for cotton yield in this region. 【Conclusion】The results can provide a scientific guidance in dealing with the impacts of climate change on cotton production in Oasis agriculture. |
| Key words: RZWQM2; Climate change; Cotton production; IWUE; Oasis agriculture |
