| 摘要: |
| 【目的】灌溉是保障粮食产量和农业质量的关键，有效灌溉是确保国民经济持续向好发展的坚实基础，探究有效灌溉对县域农业经济增长的影响对推进地方农业提质增效具有重要意义。【方法】基于2015—2017年河北省170个区县的面板数据，通过Moran’s I 指数、Getis-Ord Gi*指数计算和厘清河北省县域农业经济增长水平的空间相关性和时空演化特征，并运用空间计量和面板门槛回归模型探究河北省有效灌溉对县域农业经济增长的影响效应。【结果】研究期内河北省县域农业经济增长水平冷热不均，但分布格局基本稳定，存在显著空间相关性，整体处于持续提升阶段；空间杜宾模型结果表明，有效灌溉同时抑制了本区县及邻接区县的农业经济增长；面板门槛回归模型结果表明，以两个门槛值为分界点，河北省有效灌溉对其县域农业经济增长存在“显抑-持抑-显增”三阶段影响效应；研究期内有166个区县处于中转移“持抑”区间，再次验证了空间杜宾模型的结论。【结论】河北省相关政府部门应在提高水资源利用的同时加强农田水利工程设施建设、提升节水灌溉技术和健全完善灌溉工程的运行维护管理体系和长效机制，并因地制宜地制定区域差异化推动农业经济发展政策，助力农业提质增效转型升级。 |
| 关键词: 河北省；有效灌溉；县域农业经济；空间计量；双门槛效应 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F329.9；S279.2 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573263) |
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| The Effect of Effective Irrigation in Hebei Province on The Growth of County Agricultural Economy——Double Test Based on Spatial Measurement and Threshold Regression |
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yangruyi1, kongfantao2
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1.Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS;2.Institute of Special Animal and Plant Sciences of CAAS
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Hebei Province is the second largest agricultural province in terms of the total number of counties. The development of county-level agricultural economy is of great significance. However, its water resources are inherently insufficient, unevenly distributed in time and space, and vary greatly from year to year. And the contradiction of water between supply and demand is prominent. In 2017, the growth rate of agricultural output in Hebei Province slowed down and the intermediate consumption ratio rebounded. It is not clear whether the effective irrigation level was one of the factors restricting the growth rate of agricultural economy. 【Objective】Irrigation is the key to guaranteeing food production and agricultural quality. Effective irrigation is a solid foundation to ensure the continued development of the national economy. Exploring the impact of effective irrigation on county agricultural economic development is of great significance for promoting local agricultural quality and efficiency. 【Method】Based on the panel data of 170 districts and counties in Hebei Province from 2015 to 2017, this paper used the Moran's I index and the Getis-Ord Gi* index to calculate the spatial correlation and clarify the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the county agricultural economic development in Hebei Province. Spatial autoregressive and panel threshold regression models were used to explore the effect of effective irrigation in Hebei Province on the county's agricultural economic growth. 【Result】As a result, there are three conclusions as follows. Firstly, during the study period, the county agricultural economy in Hebei Province developed unevenly, but the distribution pattern was basically stable and in the stage of continuous improvement. Secondly, the results of the SDM model showed that the effective irrigation rate also inhibited the agricultural economic growth of the district and adjacent districts and counties. Thirdly, The results of the panel threshold regression model showed that with the two thresholds as the demarcation point, Hebei’s effective irrigation had a three-stage impact on the county’s agricultural economic growth: "obviously inhibited-continuously inhibited-obviously increased"; there were 166 districts throughout the study period in the middle transfer range, and the increase in the effective irrigation rate at this stage had a continuous inhibitory effect on the county's agricultural economic growth, which again verified the conclusion of the SDM model. 【Conclusion】The deficiencies of natural resources in Hebei Province made it difficult to develop and utilize water resources, natural disasters often affect irrigation benefits. And the investment in irrigation facilities construction was large, most counties were still in the stage of construction cost recovery. These were the main reasons for restricting the growth of county agricultural economy. In the future, while improving the utilization of water resources in Hebei, relevant government departments should strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy engineering facilities, improve water-saving irrigation technology and improve the operation and maintenance management system and long-term mechanism of irrigation projects, and formulate differentiated agricultural economic development policies for different natural resource endowments, county economies, and water source conditions to help improve the quality and efficiency of agriculture in Hebei. |
| Key words: Hebei; effective irrigation; county-level agricultural economy; spatial econometrics; double threshold effect |
