| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究鄱阳湖五河入湖水沙丰枯变化及其影响因素。【方法】基于鄱阳湖“五河”流域控制水文站的径流量—输沙量资料，利用滑动相关系数法、双累积曲线法和copula函数，揭示了流域水沙演变规律，定量评估不同时期流域水沙丰枯遭遇事件发生的概率。【结果】五河入湖总径流量呈增加趋势，其中修水增加趋势显著，总输沙量呈显著减少趋势，而饶河输沙量呈显著增多趋势；五河入湖水沙关系除抚河外都出现突变变化，其中信江水沙关系突变后径流量增幅最大为15.9%，赣江输沙量降幅最多为67.3%，饶河P3时期（2004-2018）的输沙量相较P1时期（1956-1971）增幅高达100.3%；不同时期“五河”水沙丰枯异步的概率要小于丰枯同步，且丰枯同平的概率最高；【结论】极端降水特征、水土保持项目的实施、水库建设和河道采砂对流域水沙变化影响深远。 |
| 关键词: Copula函数;水沙关系;鄱阳湖流域;气候变化;人类活动 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P333.4 |
| 基金项目:江西省水利厅科技项目(202223YBKT05、202223YBKT16、202224ZDKT06、202223BZKT02、2022KSG01002) |
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| Analysis on the relationship between the abundance and dryness of water and sediment in the five rivers entering the lake in Poyang Lake |
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Jianhongfu1, HanHuiming2
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1.Jiangxi Academy of Water Sciences and Engineering;2.Nan Chang University
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| Abstract: |
| [Objective] To investigate the variation of water and sand abundance in the five rivers of Poyang Lake and its influencing factors. [Method] Based on the runoff-sediment data of the control hydrological station in the "Five Rivers" basin of Poyang Lake, the sliding correlation coefficient method, the double cumulative curve method, and the copula function are used to reveal the evolution of water and sediment in the basin, and to quantitatively evaluate the probability of occurrence of flood and drought events in the basin during different periods. [Results] The results show that the total runoff of the five rivers into the lake is increasing, of which the runoff of the Xiu River has a significant increase, the total sediment volume has a significant decrease, but the Rao River has a significant increasing trend of sediment volume; The water-sediment relationship has undergone abrupt changes except for the Fuhe River. Among them, the Xinjiang River has a maximum runoff increase of 15.9% after the abrupt change in the water-sediment relationship, the Ganjiang River has a maximum decrease of 67.3%, and the Raohe River has a maximum increase of 100.3% during the P3 period (2004-2018) compared with the P1 period (1956-1971); In different periods, the probability of the asynchrony of high and low levels of water and sand in the "Five Rivers" is less than the probability of synchronous high and low levels, and the probability of the same level of high and low levels is the highest; [Conclusion] The characteristics of extreme precipitation, the implementation of soil and water conservation projects, reservoir construction and river sand mining have far-reaching impacts on water and sediment changes in the basin |
| Key words: Copula function; water-sediment relationship; Poyang Lake Basin; climate change; human activities |
