| 引用本文: | 王 坤,陈 林,庞丹波,等.宁夏中部干旱区降水量及可利用降水量多时间尺度变化特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,(10):-. |
| WANG Kun,CHEN Lin,PANG Danbo,et al.宁夏中部干旱区降水量及可利用降水量多时间尺度变化特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2022,(10):-. |
|
| |
|
|
| 本文已被：浏览 592次 下载 0次 |
|
|
|
| 宁夏中部干旱区降水量及可利用降水量多时间尺度变化特征分析 |
|
王 坤1,2,3, 陈 林4,2,3, 庞丹波4,2,3, 李学斌4,2,3, 沙 欢1,2,3, 彭 妞1,2,3
|
|
1.宁夏大学农学院 银川;2.宁夏大学西北退化生态系统恢复与重建教育部重点实验室 银川;3.宁夏大学西北土地退化与生态系统恢复国家重点实验室培育基地 银川;4.宁夏大学生态环境学院 银川
|
|
| 摘要: |
| 摘 要：【目的】研究1969—2020年宁夏中部干旱区降水量及可利用降水量在不同时间尺度的变化特征，为当地的水资源利用以及灾害防治提供参考依据。【方法】基于1969—2020年宁夏中部干旱区6个气象站降水量及月平均气温资料，采用高桥浩一郎蒸散发公式、气候趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验以及小波周期分析，对宁夏中部干旱区降水量及可利用降水量在不同时间尺度下的分配情况、丰欠演变趋势及周期规律进行研究。【结果】（1）宁夏中部干旱区西北区与东南区降水资源差异较大，降水量分别为188.0 mm和304.1 mm，可利用降水量分别为17.8 mm和58.9 mm。（2）宁夏中部干旱区降水主要集中在夏季，占全年57 %左右；冬季最少，仅占全年3 %，且年内和年际变化平缓；春、冬季可利用降水率低。（3）宁夏中部干旱区年际间降水资源年际间将由波动期向干旱期变化；东南区的极端降雨现象比西北区更明显，西北区在2013年以前可利用降水资源较为丰富。（4）趋势分析表明未来东南区年降水量及可利用降水量分别以1.539、0.467 mm/a速率显著增加，西北区降水量以0.647 mm/a显著增加、可利用降水量以0.073 mm/a的降幅减少，但无显著性；突变分析表明2010年为宁夏中部干旱区降水量开始发生突变的年份。（5）宁夏中部降水量及可利用降水量主要以9、12~13、40 a为主周期，对应的振荡周期分别为6、9、25 a。可利用降水变率较大，对农牧生产活动影响较大。【结论】宁夏中部干旱区各降水资源东南区比西北区更丰富；季节年降水量及可利用降水量排序均为夏季＞秋季＞春季＞冬季；未来降水量及可利用降水量有显著上升趋势，降水资源向着大周期尺度演变。 |
| 关键词: 宁夏中部干旱区;降水量;可利用降水量;多时间尺度;Mann-Kendall突变检验法;小波分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S7 |
| 基金项目:宁夏重点研发计划项目(2021BEG02005)、国家自然科学基金（31960359）、第三批宁夏青年科技人才托举工程项目(TJGC2018068)和中央引导地方项目（2022FRD05001） |
|
| Analysis of multi-time scale variation characteristics of precipitation and available precipitation in arid area of central Ningxia |
|
WANG Kun1,2,3, CHEN Lin4,2,3, PANG Danbo4,2,3, LI Xuebin4,2,3, SHA Huan1,2,3, PENG Niu1,2,3
|
|
1.School of Agriculture，Ningxia University, Yinchuan;2.Breeding Base for State Key Laboratory of Land Degradation and Ecological Restoration in Northwest China, Ningxia University, Yinchuan;3.Key Laboratory for Restoration and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystem in Northwest China of Ministry of Education, Ningxia University, Yinchuan;4.College of Ecological Environment, Ningxia University, Yinchuan
|
| Abstract: |
| Abstract: 【Objective】 To study the variation characteristics of precipitation and available precipitation in the arid area of central Ningxia from 1969 to 2020 at different time scales, and to provide a reference for local water resources utilization and disaster prevention. 【Method】 Based on the precipitation and monthly average temperature data of six meteorological stations in the arid area of central Ningxia from 1969 to 2020, the distribution of precipitation, the evolution trend and cycle law of abundance and disadvantage in the arid area of central Ningxia were studied by using Koichiro Takahashi's evapotranspiration formula, climate trend method, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet cycle analysis. 【Result】 (1) The precipitation in the northwest and southeast regions of the arid region of central Ningxia was quite different, with precipitation of 188.0 mm and 304.1 mm, and available precipitation of 17.8 mm and 58.9 mm, respectively. (2) Precipitation in the arid areas of central Ningxia is mainly concentrated in summer, accounting for about 57% of the year; winter is the least, accounting for only 3% of the year, and the intra-year and interannual changes are gentle; the available precipitation rate in spring and winter is low. (3) Interannual precipitation water resources in the arid area of central Ningxia will change from fluctuation period to dry period; the extreme rainfall phenomenon in the southeast region is more obvious than that in the northwest region, and the available precipitation water resources in the northwest region are more abundant before 2013. (4) Trend analysis shows that the annual precipitation and available precipitation in the southeast region will increase significantly at a rate of 1.539 mm/a and 0.467 mm/a, respectively, and the precipitation in the northwest region will increase significantly by 0.647 mm/a, and the available precipitation will decrease by 0.073 mm/a, but there is no significance; the mutation analysis shows that 2010 is the year when precipitation in the arid area of central Ningxia began to mutate. (5) Precipitation and available precipitation in central Ningxia are mainly based on 9, 12~13, 40 a as the main cycle, and the corresponding oscillation periods are 6, 9 and 25 a, respectively. The variable rate of available precipitation is large, which has a greater impact on agricultural and animal husbandry production activities. 【Conclusion】 The southeast region of each precipitation resource in the arid region of central Ningxia is more abundant than that in the northwest region; the seasonal annual precipitation and available precipitation are all summer> autumn> spring > winter; future precipitation and available precipitation have a significant upward trend, and precipitation water resources evolve towards a large-cycle scale. |
| Key words: Arid region of central Ningxia; Precipitation available; precipitation Multi-time scale; Mann-Kendall mutation test; wavelet analysis |
|
|
|
|
