| 引用本文: | 席海潮,解阳阳,刘赛艳,等.径流变异对黑河流域上游径流统计特征与频率分析的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| xihaichao,xieyangyang,liusaiyan,et al.径流变异对黑河流域上游径流统计特征与频率分析的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】受环境变化的影响，流域径流表现出显著的变化趋势，研究径流统计特征和频率分析对水资源规划和水利工程的建设具有重要意义。【方法】以黑河流域上游年径流量和年最大洪峰流量为研究对象，分别采用定点变宽窗口（A型窗口）和变点定宽窗口（B型窗口）2种分析窗口截取的径流序列（窗口序列）进行分析，利用优化适线法分析窗口序列的统计特征，并推求径流设计值。应用线性趋势分析法、MMK检验法和启发式分割法对窗口序列进行趋势和突变分析。【结果】（1）年径流量估计参数Ex在A、 B型窗口分析中呈显著增加趋势并存在突变，Cv在A型窗口分析中呈显著增加趋势，在B型窗口分析中存在突变。Cs在B型窗口分析中存在突变。年径流量不同频率设计值在A、B型窗口分析中呈显著增加趋势并存在突变。（2）年最大洪峰估计参数Cv在A型窗口分析中存在突变，Ex在B型窗口分析中存在突变，Cs在B型窗口分析中呈显著增加趋势并存在突变。年最大洪峰不同频率设计值在A型窗口分析中存在增加趋势但不显著并存在突变，在B型窗口分析中存在显著增加趋势和突变。【结论】黑河流域上游径流统计特征和设计值存在显著的变化趋势。尽管径流过程发生变异，A型窗口分析要比B型窗口分析有利于进行水文频率计算，可以得到更可靠的径流设计值。 |
| 关键词: 时变特征；频率分析；趋势检验；启发式分割法；黑河流域 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P333 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(项目号:52009116)；江苏省自然科学基金(项目号:BK20200958；BK20200959)；中国博士后科学基金(项目号:2018M642338)；扬州市软科学研究课题(项目号:2022187) |
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| Impact of runoff variability on statistical characteristics and frequency analysis of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin |
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xihaichao1, xieyangyang1,2, liusaiyan1, huangchengjian1, shenteng1, zhangqin1
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1.College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University;2.Modern Rural Water Conservancy Research Institute, Yangzhou University
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The study of runoff statistical characteristics and frequency analysis is of great significance for water resources planning and construction of water resources projects, as runoff from watersheds exhibits significant trends due to environmental changes. 【Method】Using the annual runoff and annual maximum flood flow in the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin as the study object. The runoff sequences (window sequences) intercepted by two types of analysis windows, the fixed-point variable-width window (type A window) and the variable-point fixed-width window (type B window), were analyzed separately. The statistical characteristics of the window series were analyzed using P-Ш type curves and the runoff design values were derived. The linear trend analysis method, MMK trend test method and heuristic segmentation method were applied to analyze the window series for trend and mutation test. 【Result】(1) The estimated annual runoff parameters Ex showed a significant increasing trend and mutation in the type A and type B window analysis, Cv showed a significant increasing trend in the type A window analysis and mutation in the type B window analysis, and Cs showed mutation in the type B window analysis. The design values of different frequencies of annual runoff showed a significant increasing trend and abrupt changes in type A and type B windows. (2) The estimated parameters of annual maximum flood Cv had mutations in the type A window analysis, Ex had mutations in the type B window analysis, and Cs had a significant increasing trend and mutations in the type B window analysis. The design values of different frequencies of the annual maximum flood were not significantly increasing in the type A window analysis, but there was a sudden change. There was a significant increasing trend and mutation in the B type window analysis. 【Conclusion】There are significant trends in the statistical characteristics and design values of runoff in the upper reaches of Heihe River basin. Despite the variability of runoff processes, the type A window analysis is more favorable than the type B window analysis for hydrological frequency calculations, and more reliable design values of runoff can be obtained. |
| Key words: Time-varying characteristics; Frequency analysis; Trend test; Heuristic segmentation method; Heihe River Basin |
